Bitcoin: The Worst-Case Scenario

追加: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]the fact that he settled on this as being the way to best model Bitcoin. I he's essentially using a power law for the bottom. He's using a decay function at the top and he's using the quantile framework which is exactly what I've been working on now for pretty much well over I want to say even getting close to 2 years.

[00:00:15]>> Wicks and tails like to be retaken which means most likely we're going to revisit at this stage. I believe the 59 >> the pace is still well above the yearly uh net change. So the yearly net change is more around a pace of 5,000 per week and then the last 90 days is still 9 and a half thousand per week.

[00:00:34]>> And maybe that's why it feels like this time is different because we didn't have that kind of blowoff top. Looking into the channel's data, I couldn't help notice that almost over 90% of you watching my videos are actually not subscribe to my channel yet. If there is one simple thing you can do to help me, subscribe to the channel. Thank you so much. Your support means a lot to me.

[00:00:53]Guys, welcome back to another show.

[00:00:54]Bitcoin Uncharted with Plan C. Smitty is traveling, but don't worry, we're going to get together next week in Prague. But see, how you doing today?

[00:01:03]>> Yeah, doing very well, Mauricio. Despite the price action, looking forward to seeing him in Prague here shortly and just a lot of exciting things happening.

[00:01:09]Yeah, just last minute things before I fly out.

[00:01:12]>> If you happen to be in Prague, come and say hi. Our pan is going to be on the first day, I think, at 9:30. So hopefully we can see some of you there.

[00:01:20]By the way, Smitty will drop a video as always on Thursday, I believe. So, make sure to go and follow him. We have seen quite a dump to be honest. Interesting to highlight, we also lost the bull market support, which we were monitoring last week. 73 was the lowest band and the highest now has somewhat the 77,000 mark. One option could be a double bottom there, meaning the next number to watch will be 655 more or less. And if we do break that one, we might revisit the 59. There's one thing that Da Vinci says all the time and he goes, "Wicks and tails like to be retaken, which means most likely we're going to revisit at this stage, I believe, the 59. Could we go lower?" Sure. Would I wait to buy lower? Absolutely not.

[00:02:08]>> Yeah. Just another clear capitulation and kind of the process and playing out of the of the bottoming of of the um of this period. I mean it's it's essentially a process right that takes place over over a longer period of time.

[00:02:20]I think we did definitely started that checkmates talked about this starting that process on that move down to 60.

[00:02:25]Now the question is you know how does that kind of recovery play out and in a lot of ways it's looking like yeah we're going to have to kind of confirm in a lot of ways the strength in that in that 60 region. I mean right now we're in the high 60s but really we spent most of the time in the kind of lower 60s I guess and then yeah we did have the dump down to 60 but that was so shortlived. I mean 59 on some exchanges, 60 on others.

[00:02:48]Everyone kind of has that as their bottom point, but on a weekly close we never even went below really uh like you said 65.7.

[00:02:57]So yeah, mid60s you could say just to keep it simple. We put in a lot of price action between like 60 I mean on on daily close. Can you pull up the daily?

[00:03:07]Yeah. Yeah. So, so between like 62 and say 60 65 or whatever in that in that range, that's really where we put in like a actual, you know, daily and weekly closes. So, kind of like the the mid to low 60s is really what the floor was. I mean, unless you're on a really low, you know, candle and stuff, we've kind of gone below all those major levels. So, uh there's nothing really now. It's just seeing, okay, do we hold what we held before? That's really the only thing left at this point. And but I do think um if the scenario plays out, so you were saying the the W formation or double bottom formation. If that does play out, right, cuz this is on weekly candles. If we do get another confirmation of a solid support in that same area, like in that same whatever you want to call it, like we said, like 62 to 65 or just mid to low 60s, right?

[00:03:59]If we bounce there, I think that gives and this this process is probably going to play out over the next month or so if you know it's looking like maybe even longer. So if we get that, assuming that does happen, I think that instills a ton of confidence, right? Like like you said, seeing a double bottom in that same area would give I think enough confidence that would that would convert it's another way of converting more people to believe the bottom is in. So that's that's one scenario. Of course, we could, you know, lose that. That's obviously the other scenario just to cover all scenarios. I mean it's clear that we could also you know put in a new low and that that would change the sentiment for sure because if that happens then the market is saying okay this process of trying to find the low is still clearly playing out and maybe maybe the four-ear cycle is correct.

[00:04:42]Maybe you know we will uh bottom out later in the year and we still have some work to do.

[00:04:47]>> Even if we do bounce from this mid65 it's not going to be a clean bounce. I think there's going to be more like some shenanigans down here as much as we've done here. It's not going to be a clean touch and go. And also, it's probably worth highlighting how fast we dropped all the way and how difficult it's going to be to regain. Look how much this is important for the old move, right? So, I think we'll have to build another base here, a stronger base, maybe even going sideways for a bit to build that support to then bounce back.

[00:05:14]>> Yeah, I totally I totally can see that for sure. Like just having Yeah, just having a bit more time spent at these levels. So, I still remain I know people are probably saying at this point how, you know, how is he still hanging on to this thesis? But I I honestly still believe that this time it's more of a midcycle correction. Now, it's definitely kind of leaning more towards percentage- wise, right? Because nothing's 100%. I would say, yeah, the the case for the four-year cycle is increasing. I mean, I think that based on this recent move down, I I would I would give it a slightly higher probability. I still have a less than 50% personally, but I I think that probability is increasing that this is more of a longer term uh drawn out bare market, but we'll see. I mean, I still think there's there's definitely a really good probability that we do have a different pattern and we do have more of a midcycle, you know, kind of mini bare market, midcycle correction, but we're going to have to see a recovery pretty soon, right? Like I mean, if if we recover, the window's closing on that kind of thesis and scenario. we're going to need to see a decent recovery in the next couple months here. So, we'll see what happens. But, um, as far as the draw down percentage, I mean, assuming we don't put in a lot lower low, we're still only at 50%. Right? On on any on any higher time frame, uh, if you're using weekly candles, it's like 47% or something like that, right? So, uh, weekly, yeah, I want to say it's more like 46 47% and then on the on the on the hourly, it's it's exactly 50% on the hourly. I think on the hourly depends on the exchange of course, but on the hourly we went down to I want to say around um like 62 or something 63. So the the the 60,000 is really only on the very very small time frames. So the correction percentage is still looking like something that's not the normal you know 75 or 80% plus.

[00:07:03]>> We can clearly see they are selling that there is no tomorrow. This is the 30 days. Look at that. There is like a $3.5 billion in net flow which is nuts. This looks to me like the peak capitulation in ETFs, more so than even when we put in the 60,000.

[00:07:17]>> On the 27th of May, we had the second ever largest capitulation with 733,000 million leaving the ETF. This was the second largest. I think the first was November 2025, I want to say, with 820 something I want to say.

[00:07:34]>> Yeah, we had the so the peak is the highest in a single day, but also just over a sustained period, right? If we look at like a weekly or monthly, it seems like this is this week and last week, maybe the last three week three weeks now. But yeah, it this does seem like peak capitulation at least for what we've seen so far for the ETFs.

[00:07:53]>> Two interesting things I'm doing. So one is the gold versus Bitcoin from the beginning of the year. So you can see if you would have invested in gold as opposed to Bitcoin, this is just from January 1. So this is going to change consistently. But another one that I like to watch is this. So this is the annual return. Remember we used to have those 1 2 3 red 1 2 3 red 1 2 3 red kind of pattern. Well, last year was not green which means we actually broke a pattern. And maybe that's why it feels like this time is different because we didn't have that kind of blowoff top.

[00:08:26]>> There's a couple things here. It actually goes back to the what you just talked about with the gold and Bitcoin.

[00:08:30]So the peak in if you look at if you denominate bitcoin and gold instead of denominating in US dollars the peak of the cycle my from what I remember was uh late 2024 to early 2025 was actually the peak denominated in gold right so but I mean most people they just look at the USD denomination but it is true what you're saying obviously as far as the pattern goes I mean this was the most simplistic way of looking at the four-year cycle and it was it was uh people were posting it on on social media like the whole idea of of three green, one one red as a very simple overview for the four-year cycle. Now, I think a lot of people that really believe in the four-ear cycle idea, they would still they would argue that doesn't matter. They would say, "Okay, yeah, but you know, it's still still the same pattern. We still had the peak of the price the 126 was in Q4 of last year uh in US dollars. And then, you know, if we do bottom out, somewhat bottom out at the the Q4 of this year, then the pattern still is kind of playing out.

[00:09:32]So, a lot of people actually based it on more the the lows than the highs. But it it is true that we broke this pattern, but I I wouldn't say this was one of the data points. So, this was a data point I was looking at and say, okay, this this is this is a data point for something different occur for sure. But I still think so this one and then also the draw down percentage I think are two two good arguments. So it's more about you know what are the arguments on either side.

[00:09:56]Uh the other one is the business cycle right we never we never um we never completed a full bull market during uh well being below 50 on the on the uh on uh on the PMI right on the ISM PMI. So the business business cycle. So that's another thing right it's another it'd be another first right this would be a first that would be a first. So there'd be a lot of firsts but um but I still think at this point we we we can't really rule out anything. I think we're still wait and see. I think both thesises still have a good good amount of validity or at least a good argument.

[00:10:29]So, but this is good. I I like this as an overview. Sailor obviously this this is a topic many people are talking about on X, which I I think is a little bit silly. Uh the fact that he sold 32 Bitcoin. So, yeah, as far as all the reasons for him selling, I mean, I just don't think it matters. I think it's complete noise. Like, he said he was going to sell a little bit of Bitcoin here and there. He's doing it for whatever reason he's doing it for. I mean, it's it's it's important, right?

[00:10:54]If you believe in Sailor as a if you look if you if you have trust or you believe in Sailor as somebody who, you know, is intelligent and somebody who is is uh a good good at financial engineering and just a good allocator and and just decision maker. There's clear reasons for optimizing taxes or first of all, on a really high time frame, Sailor's just trying to get a huge stack of Bitcoin. That's clearly obvious. But it's not just that. He's looking ahead and saying once he has this huge stack, what can what can he do with it? And he wants to become some sort of a a bank, a quasi bank of some kind, right? So over higher time frames, he's he's doing whatever he needs to do.

[00:11:33]He's spinning whatever narrative at the time. I I don't really care. I don't really care if he changes narratives to be completely honest. To me, these are phases, you know, along the curve of what he's long-term vision is. It's not like he's dumping 10% of his Bitcoin. To me, that would be huge if he did something like that. If he started dumping uh similar quantities to what he was selling the week before now, that would be that would be a big issue. It's such a small percentage. So, to go into um to go into the dashboard here in the Sailor curve, just to give an update for anyone who's wondering because the last week, you know, Sailor sold 32. The week before he s he bought none. So people might be saying, you know, this is a complete change, but you got to remember the week before he bought 25,000 Bitcoin, which was a huge week. And this is pretty much getting close to final product. So the top So the top uh section here is the actual breakdown of what Sailor has or strategy has. So the middle number, Bitcoin holdings, you know, people are aware of that. You can see it on various sites. 843, uh, 706 and then percentage of 21 million, you know, just over 4%. But I think that some of the interesting data here on the left side, I have the 90-day net change. So that accounts for buys and sells now because now we saw the first sell. But yeah, 90-day net change, it's uh 123,000 basically uh of net inflows. And then I break it down on a weekly. So you can see over a weekly pace, you know, it's it's 9 and a half thousand and basically nine and a half thousand. And then the one year, so I'm comparing I have the 90-day also have the one-year change. So on the one-year change, you know, 260 almost 3,000 and then the weekly pace for that is around 5,000. So you can see over the last 90 days, the pace, even though the last two weeks has been basically nothing, the pace is still well above the yearly uh net change. So the yearly net change is more around a pace of 5,000 per week and then the last 90 days is still 9 a half thousand per week. And that's because we had some huge weeks, right? We've had some over the last, you know, 10 weeks or so or or 15 weeks. There's been a couple in there that were huge. And the cost basis, you can see this on other sites as well, but yeah, 75,6 700. And then I added this on the right side, which I think is really cool, which is progress to limit. This is a new new metric here. So, this is showing how much he has currently, how much strategy has versus the the model's projected um limit, right? It's also called the asmtote for people that follow statistics and things. But the point is it's it's the projected upper limits of what basically uh strategy will reach which is currently at 2 million uh 71,000. So or sorry 2 million 91,000 I should say. So that's 40 over 40%. So to give the model is basically saying that um strategy is essentially uh based on the projections at this point they they've finished about 40% of their accumulation process. So if you look at the process is as essentially an accumulation process. It's about 40% finished as of now. And then the second row here I have it it shows n equals 111. That's because there's been 111 disclosures. So 111 times that's the data point. So it's a based on this is showing more statistical validity for the actual fit. So it's a 0.97. It actually has been going up the last few weeks. So it's at 97% now um as far as the fit quality R squared and that's based on 111 data points disclosures.

[00:15:03]And then to the right of that I have the limit or the asmtote. So this is uh the projected the ceiling like I was saying that's the number that was used in that top right metric. And that's uh the the 2,91,000 and that's almost 10% of the overall total supply, right? We'll see. So right now he's on pace or Australia's on pace for about 10% of the supply and then we have the model prediction. So for today the model is projecting uh 841 and that's rising right now based on the curve of the of the sailor curve. It's rising 6,500 per week. So just to keep pace with the model, it has to go up basically 6,500 per week and the projections. So November, it's still projecting November of this year is when they'll pass a million. And then for 2 million, it's projecting July of of 2031. And then just to go through the last section here, uh the middle the middle section is the actual model. The top section is the um the reality or the holdings. And then the bottom is is the comparison here. So this is reality verse model. So the bottom left corner you have the 90-day pace verse the model. So over the last 90 days, we're actually ahead of schedule, right? So it's it's 1 point almost 1.5 uh times the model. So over the last 90 days we've actually outpaced the model by a ratio of 1.49 and it has the breakdown because we we added 23,000 bitcoin or or strategy added 123,000 bitcoin.

[00:16:26]Basically uh the curve was 83,000 right?

[00:16:30]I'm rounding up on these on these thousands here. But the point is it's above pace. But if you look at the yearly the yearly is below. So the yearly is 0.85. 85. So, but pretty close. Basically, the model and reality have been pretty close over the last year. Um, we've add sailors added 263 and the model um called for 309. So, pretty close there. And right now, the model is only there's only a 2,000 Bitcoin difference between the model and the predicted and that's only two days ahead of schedule. So, essentially reality is only two days ahead of schedule. the actual sailor curve will get to the exact holdings that strategy has June 4th. So June 4th there'll be parody. So the the model right now is is absolutely bang on to what's happening.

[00:17:17]Um standard deviation wise it's it's essentially zero. It's 0.05. So uh one standard deviations uh that's more of a statistical thing is almost 44,000 uh in either direction. So that's plus 44,000 or minus 40 uh 44,000. That's one standard deviation in either direction.

[00:17:36]But right now, I mean, it's only 2.2,000 difference. So, it's a very small deviation from the um from the kind of midpoint. So, yeah, that's the full summary there. I mean, it's a lot of data, but it's essentially the overview is it's a really good fit. I mean, the fit only keeps getting better over time.

[00:17:53]And when I started looking at this, it was around I want to say 0.965 or 0.9, you know, so it's it's improved since I've been tracking this over the last five or six weeks or more now.

[00:18:05]Probably more like seven weeks or something. But yeah, it's improving the fit and um the projections have stayed very consistent as far as the the peak.

[00:18:13]So it's say or as far as the ceiling, it's pretty much been projecting between 2 million and 2.1 million uh for the last two months. And so yeah, I'm pretty confident in it. We'll see over time how it holds up. But this is a and I have other things I'm adding. It's going to be a site here. So I have uh there's a bunch of charts. There's a few other few other tools. So but this is basically it.

[00:18:33]>> I cannot wait for the site to be live because I want to play with this. I know it's going to be interactive also. So you can change and put dates in and out.

[00:18:40]But the accuracy is remarkable.

[00:18:42]>> Yeah, I appreciate that. And and between Yumi and Smitty, I mean we're we're building a lot of these these really cool with vibe coding. It's so cool how you can build this stuff. So yeah, I mean between Y, me and Smitty, I mean there's going to be so many metrics, so many tools. You know, we're going to dissect and look at Bitcoin in every every way. And so this is, yes, this isn't Bitcoin directly. This is looking at strategy, but you know, factoring in how significant of a player strategy is going to be in the ecosystem over the higher time frames. interesting to look at their adoption curve and and what they end up with because based on how many bitcoin they end up with there's going to be a lot done with that and and different different tools that are created from that and and um income and or uh yield I should say and so yeah I think it's interesting to track and just see and and a lot of people are are probably wondering yeah like okay so and a lot of people hold MSTR too right I don't but other people do and so for them they look at MSTR they're wondering how much is sailor gonna have how many bitco because that's going to impact the shares and and the market cap for uh for strategy over the higher time frames.

[00:19:41]And I mean the fact that they're already at 40%. It makes sense. So there's this is still the ramp up phase, right, with an S-curve, right, with a logistic growth model, which is what this is.

[00:19:51]It's an S-curve. So you have a parabolic rise. We talked about this before. And then you have a midpoint, which is the inflection point. And then it does go the other direction and kind of slows down. So, we're still in the growth or you could say um the ramp up phase, but that is projected to switch um towards the end of this year. So, kind of end of this year, early next year is when we'll actually flip to once we get over 50% of the progress, that's when it starts to slow down. So, it slows down really slowly initially and then it will slow down at a faster and faster pace. But, um yeah, we'll see how we'll see how well it holds up. You know, we'll update it every now and then. We won't go through the whole dashboard every time, but we'll we'll give the basic overview of of a couple things and uh we'll keep track of this for sure and and I'm looking forward to getting the site live. I've been working on for a while, but it's it's getting really close. Uh in Prague, this will be one of the two things I'll be presenting. So, I'm going to be presenting uh it's a combination of two models for my presentation. It'll be the uh the quantile framework I've been working on. I'll finally be presenting that in in its final version and then this in the final version. So, I'm essentially working uh around the clock to get these two models completely finished and and ready to present in Prague.

[00:21:02]>> Great to see Benjamin tagging you into a post cuz I know he came up with his own model which we can cover briefly. I haven't read the paper yet, but this looks really interesting.

[00:21:10]>> It was cool to see for sure and and I yeah, I definitely really appreciate him giving a shout out to Giovani and myself and based on his what his model is, so I still need to read the full report. I haven't read the full report. I do know what he did for the most part here. Um, but I want to make sure I go through the details and really understand exactly, you know, anything different he's done.

[00:21:29]But, but in in essence, he's using the power laws as kind of one of the core foundations of the math for the lower section, right? And then the upper section, he's using more of a decay function. So, he he calls it asymmetric quantile regression. Asymmetric is just saying essent asymmetric tail curvature.

[00:21:47]So asymmetric is essentially saying that the and when he says tail he's talking about the uh tail is a word for the lower quantiles or the upper quantiles.

[00:21:56]So tail you could say is like the fifth quantile, the 10th quantile or the first quantile on the downside and on the upside, you know, that'd be more like the 90th quantile, 95th or the 99th.

[00:22:06]He's talking about the the kind of edges of the of the band. And um he's basically saying that the the peaks or the tops are are following a different pattern than the the bottom uh tail. And and this is something Simson and me have been saying for years. I mean we've been talking about there's nothing this is nothing new. I mean basically Smithson's decay channel is based on that whole concept. He uses an exponential decay.

[00:22:30]Right. So that that is a is an asymmetric. You know he's using the power law for the bottom. He's using exponential decay for the tops.

[00:22:37]Smithson's decay channel. Yeah. So wable decay, exponential decay, logistic decay, gazian decay, that's the other one that's a good fit. What does they say that the best compliment is when someone copies you or does something very similar? So yes, he he probably did some unique things here. And I think the fact that he wrote a really long paper about it and really yeah, presented it a really good way. I mean, Ben's a is a very smart guy, very professional, and um has a strong background. And so for him to put together the rapport was a was a huge thing. and the fact that he settled on this as being the way to best model Bitcoin. I he's essentially using a power law for the bottom. He's using a decay function at the top and he's using the quantile framework which is exactly what I've been working on now for pretty much well over I want to say even getting close to two years but at least a year and a half and so he basically validate not val it's not that we needed Ben's validation but it's another person that is saying you know this is the best way to model Bitcoin is a quantile framework and is using the power line the decay channel and even even checkmate I mean another really wellrespected analyst he has checkmate on his website now has a quant ile I think he's just using the power law. I don't think he's using the decay element, the decay function, but checkmate has um basically took Matthew's Matthew created a once Matthew saw me create the quantile uh version.

[00:23:56]Matthew also um who was one of the original discoverers of the power law with with Giovani. Matthew and Giovani are kind of the two earliest and Matthew's awesome. Matthew's great.

[00:24:05]We're going to be doing the the the talk in Prague, but Matthew basically created his own quantile version. Um I think he uses the power law throughout and that's the one that Checkmate actually uses on his website now. So we're starting to see this kind of quantile modeling or I call it a quantile framework basically being adopted as the universal best way to model Bitcoin, right? This is something that myself and even Giovani, I mean Giovani, I've seen him post many times now the the quantile version of it. So I think it's it's basically at this point it's accepted. You know, you got Ben, checkmate, Matthew, myself, and Giovani that are all basically using the quantile framework, which initially I was the the main pioneer of and Smithson as well. Smithston was a huge I've talked about this. Smithson was a huge impact early on in in also getting the quantile framework kind of up and going um and also on the decay decay ideas. So I Spinston and me I I would say are the two biggest pioneers of the quantile framework and and um so it's really just it's just cool to see this growing in kind of this uh awareness and and people putting it out there and and looking into it. It's only going to get better as more great minds kind of uh take this approach and and put out their versions of it and and I I welcome it and think it's great. I I'm I'm not like Giovani where I think you know this is mine I got to have it whatever. No, to me it's like this is great. I want to see more awareness. I want to see better models put out there. And of course, I still believe mine's the best as far as as far as my version of the Quantel model, but um you know, for multiple reasons, but I I think it's cool to see other people put out their versions of it. And and I think over the higher time frames, they're all going to kind of converge to be pretty similar.

[00:25:43]>> Dude, thanks, man. I'm looking forward to see you next week. So, super exciting. We'll see you in Prague.

[00:25:47]>> Tuesday, we'll be together in Prague, I guess. Hey, that's crazy.

[00:25:50]>> Thanks again, man. Looking forward to seeing you. And guys, thank you so much for watching. We'll see you next week.

[00:25:55]Cheers.