Signal Growing For Atlantic Tropical Development...

本站添加: 2026-06-05

[00:00:00]The tropics on the Pacific side absolutely going bonkers, but the signal for possible tropical development is growing on the Atlantic side. I know that there is going to be a lot of garbage when it comes to model sharing with the potential Atlantic one. So, we're going to set the record straight and break this down with sound science meteorology and look deeper than the models over the next couple of minutes.

[00:00:21]I'd like to know your thoughts. Post in the comments where you're tuning in from and if you think we're going to get a system in the middle of June. Want to set the record straight first with this blob. This is as of June 4th.

[00:00:34]This is not the one in question in the Eastern Gulf. There's a bunch of disorganized thunderstorms in the Eastern Gulf. This is likely going to drift back to the north, bringing the North Gulf Coast some extra rain, but we are not anticipating tropical development with this one that comes around as we get towards the midpoint of June. So there's Friday, June 5th, and you don't see any colors on this map.

[00:00:56]What this is, this is the European rendition, the European ensembles. The brighter the colors, the more ensemble members are online, increasing the chance for tropical development. Just to show you the example, yeah, it's juiced down there. We have a greater than 80% chance for tropical development on those ones in the Pacific. Watch what happens though as we take this out, take the timeline out towards the middle of June.

[00:01:20]You'll gradually see colors start to form around the western Caribbean, out of Central America, and then back into the central and eastern Gulf. Certainly not as high as what we had down there for the potential for a tropical depression, but this signal is increasing. And if you've seen our videos from the early stages of May, this is exactly expected right on that same timeline. And it has to do with the action that's going on in the Pacific.

[00:01:48]All of these storms are firing up right now because there's something known as the MJO, the Madden Julian oscillation.

[00:01:54]And it acts basically like a shot in the arm to get thunderstorms going. And then pending the environment is good, which it typically is for storms when the MJO is coming through. It helps to get those storms going a little bit. Now, we have Amanda out there in the Pacific. And then two other clusters of thunderstorms that are very close to becoming our next tropical depressions and or tropical storms. So, there is a meteorological mechanism when it comes to the formation of this potential system. And again, we've talked about this since early May.

[00:02:28]I want to show you the actual ensemble members. And loaded up into here is the most is the model, the ensemble that did the best last hurricane season. And we're going to take a look what that says. And it increases the confidence.

[00:02:42]So, there's kind of like the tease. So, here we go. This is the European ensemble. when we showed you that it was kind of hinting at the north uh the central and eastern Gulf. There are many more members online now as we get closer to the actual event. And again, this is through June 15th, 16th, 17th. So, right smack dab in the middle of June. Uh the potential for something to kind of lift up out of Central America. There's nothing too terribly strong on here. And again, if this were going to be aiming towards Florida or the southeast coast, bring it on because we need to bust this drought. So again, to talk about if this this video is hype, please don't confuse that with this. Everybody is going to be talking about this eventually. And I want to make sure that we're getting out ahead of it with sound science and meteorology because we've been talking about this time frame and you can check me on that in the former videos. Um that early to mid June section and the signals growing. I'm not saying it's it's a slam dunk going to happen, but we're certainly getting it. There's the GFS ensembles kind of showing the same thing, but then as a whole.

[00:03:47]Here's the Google Deep Mind. This one knocked it out of the park. Like destroyed everything else last year in the model world. And there are a bunch of Ensemble members online. Let me uh kind of zoom this out. This is on weather nerds.org, by the way, so you can check this out for yourself. Um there are a decent amount of members in the central and eastern Gulf um when it comes to possible tropical development.

[00:04:13]And again, the one thing that I always preach here, models without context don't tell you anything.

[00:04:23]There is an actual meteorological phenomenon, the MJO, that is going to act as the catalyst to at least have a big cluster of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean or Gulf, whether it's central or eastern side during the middle part of June. Whether that consolidates into a name storm remains to be seen, but that potential is there.

[00:04:44]The water temperatures are very, very warm. So again, something we're watching, but wanted to put that on your radar because you're going to start to see and there are some out there already. Individual model runs. Don't pay attention to those. They will have no idea where that thing is going to go.

[00:05:00]We want to stay focused on the ensembles and we want to stay focused on the environment to forecast this. We're going to be on this again all the way through the middle of June. If this happens or doesn't happen, I'll keep you posted. We're going to watch this together as we uh take it out going forward into the middle of June. But remember, as we also talked about, there are analoges, very similar years going into a strong El Nino. Uh each one of those years, I still have my posted as I knock everything over as you likely just heard all that stuff. Here it is. This is all the analog years that had a similar year with sea surface temperature anomalies.

[00:05:36]95 uh 97, 2015, 82, and 72. Those are the strongest analoges that I looked at um or that I came up with. Each one of those had a storm in May, June or July.

[00:05:48]And here we are right smack dab that impacted the Gulf Coast. So, a lot of things are lining up for this potential.

[00:05:55]It's not just model noise. And that's where what we separate here, the truth from the trash on this channel. All right, back to the lower 48. Now, we still have that severe weather risk we've been breaking down for the last couple of days across the northern plains, uh, upper Midwest from about Nebraska into Wisconsin. Then it kind of splits a little bit. Two different areas for severe weather risks on Saturday.

[00:06:20]Slight risk level two out of five in western North Dakota, eastern Montana, and then back towards western PA into Ohio. And then that includes the metros of uh Columbus, Cincinnati, uh, Columbus, uh, Cleveland, I should say, and then Pittsburgh into Detroit. So, we'll be watching that closely as well over the next couple of days. Again, watching the storm chances really start to ramp up in those areas. This is going to be as move from Friday into Saturday now. And as we to turn the play button on here, we're going to watch the storms kind of push in. There they are. The big ones that rolled through Iowa, Wisconsin, and then as we move into the day on Saturday, there is the flare out from Detroit back towards Pennsylvania.

[00:07:02]And as we gear up for that secondary area kind of later into the evening back towards the inner mountain west, it's all because of this big dip in the jetream. So, we have a lot of uh jetream energy. And wait till you see the temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

[00:07:16]Um it is all going to be related to that big upper low, this big dip in the jetream right here. It's going to be fueling the chance for those stronger thunderstorms on Saturday in the areas that we just showed you. But that's also going to deliver a really big chill as we start to kind of get back into an almost omega block pattern. You can see it even in the jetream level. There's uh upper low one e kind of upper low two like way over here and then this ridge starts to build a little bit. So we kind of have um a little bit of the makings.

[00:07:47]It's not too too strong. It's not too profound, but we try to get back into that omega block pattern over the next couple of days. So here's the deal. Look how chilly we are in Seattle. We're going to struggle to get out of the 50s on Saturday because of that upper low 60s in Eugene. Meanwhile, uh as the ridge starts to build again, especially in the northern plains and upper Midwest, we're pushing 90 in the Twin Cities, 93 in May not where we still have the relatively cool, not as comfortable across the deep south and Gulf Coast, but it's still better than what it typically is in early June if you don't like the humidity. And then the warmth starts to come back. Heat I should say 94° potentially breaking records. That's what the red box indicates in New York City. A lot of stuff going on. Again, my message is ensembles, not models. If you see uh individual model runs, and that's going to be the greens and the reds and the different isobars, the lines, those were individual models. You don't want to pay attention to them. Again, we know something might be out there. It's certainly interesting. It certainly has our attention. But we've known this.

[00:08:54]We've known this for quite some time going all the way back in early May because we identified that we would have the MJO coming through with a juiced Gulf and uh other weather parameters, the analoges coming together to suggest this. So again, we made this forecast.

[00:09:10]It hasn't come into fruition. So I'm not counting the chickens before they are hatched. Not doing that. but just that we are going to see likely an area of disturbed weather in that time frame that we identified in the first week of May in this area.

[00:09:28]That's what good long range forecasting does. We did that as a team. We came together and we did that. So, uh that's what you get on this channel. If you if you like that stuff and you found this interesting and you like to separate the trash from the truth, as we always say, hit that subscribe button and I'll catch you in the next video.