22/05/2026 – 33C likely? – Met Office weather forecast UK

Indexed: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Record-breaking temperatures are expected this weekend, possibly on Sunday, more likely on Monday. And before I get into the specifics in terms of the intense heat we're expecting across the South, especially the Southeast through the next few days, it's worth emphasizing that actually many parts of England and Wales this weekend will be very warm, if not hot and sunny. And then after talking about England and Wales for a bit because that's where the intense heat is likely this weekend, I'm going to go into details about how warm it will get across Scotland and Northern Ireland from the middle of next week. So bear with me if you're in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Bear with me because it is turning warmer, sunnier, and you know, much drier as well over the next few days with temperatures here peaking the middle of next week. But I'm going to focus first of all on the south because that's where the records are likely to be broken. And talking of recordbreaking figures, this fairly technical diagram just gives you an idea of how exceptional the situation is across the UK this weekend. So this is valid bank holiday Monday and this shows the height of the 500 hector pascal um pressure line above sea level.

[00:01:20]What is the 500 hectascal pressure above sea level? Well, closer to sea level, we typically have an air pressure of about a th00and hector pascal, depending on whether it's high or low pressure, etc. As you go further up through the atmosphere, pressure drops and at a certain height, 15 to 18,000 ft above sea level, you encounter the 500 hector pascal line. And how high up that line is depends on the temperature of the atmosphere beneath it. And so this shows a particularly high area of 500 hector pascals. In fact, the red colors across England and Wales show that it's record-breaking for the time of year.

[00:02:08]And this red blob can be thought of as a dome.

[00:02:14]And this is why the term heat dome has been popularized in some parts of the world, especially North America, to talk about these situations where you have an exceptionally high surface pressure and upper high and very warm air. The warmer the air is, the more expands. So this could be thought of as this dome, this bubble of very warm air. And it's exceptionally thick. this bubble in the lowest layers of the atmosphere below 15 to 18,000 ft.

[00:02:48]So that just gives you an idea of this what many people would call heat dome.

[00:02:54]Technically here at the Metal Office, we call it an upper high or a blocking high. And just to zoom out here, we've got the Arctic centered in the middle.

[00:03:03]And it shows you how it compares to the rest of the northern hemisphere. There's North America, uh there's Asia, and there's Europe. and it just indicates how exceptional it is. And so under that blocking high over the next few days, the jetream is being pushed north. Here's Saturday.

[00:03:25]Here's Sunday, and the high pressure is centered over the southern half of the UK. Meanwhile, the jetream is still bringing more of a westerly breeze to the north of Scotland and some dangling weather fronts. So, not everywhere dry and sunny through this weekend, but I will get on to Scotland and Northern Ireland in just a moment. Under that high pressure, we've got this expanding area of heat into Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Now, initially through Saturday, the heat gets pushed to the far south of the UK, but then it expands again on Sunday and into Monday, allowing temperatures to rise widely once again.

[00:04:04]So, how hot will it get? This is Friday afternoon.

[00:04:09]Widely across England and Wales, we're looking at the mid to high 20s and temperatures likely to peak this afternoon at 29 Celsius in London. An outside chance of 30 Celsius. More cloud and some showery rain for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Saturday, here are the top temperatures.

[00:04:28]Widespread sunny skies across England and Wales. There will be some cloud and some showers first thing, perhaps a rumble of thunder overnight, but that clears away by Saturday afternoon. Sunny skies return for England and Wales. 30 Celsius the most likely high towards the southeast. Low to mid20s for the north and the west of England as well as Wales. And then low 20s, high teens for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Starting to dry out by this stage after some rain overnight across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Something a little brighter coming along Sunday. Still some showery rain for the north and west of Scotland.

[00:05:02]Elsewhere across the UK, it's dry. It's fine. A lot of sunshine around. High 20s widely across the southern half of the country. 32 Celsius, the most likely high temperature on Sunday. And then into Monday, look at that. This is bank holiday Monday. Sunshine extends more widely up and down the UK. So, it's turning warmer and sunnier for Scotland and Northern Ireland. But the peak temperatures once again across England and Wales 30 to 33 Celsius widely and that's likely to be the hottest day.

[00:05:35]Although Tuesday could see similar temperatures again more on the records in a moment but just want to mention overnight temperatures for a sec because they will also be exceptional. Now they'll be exceptionally varied across the country depending on where you are and depending on the night. Tomorrow night, Saturday night, likely to see some cooler uh air at times in certain places. Temperatures in sheltered spots, sheltered rural parts could dip down to the middle low single figures. Then it turns warmer by night the following night. Sunday night likely to be the warmest night. And this is a profile of the temperature through the atmosphere going from the ground upwards. This line here is 100 m and we've got 500 m up here. So the very lowest layers in the atmosphere and what you can see the air temperature is highly inverted. So it basically overnight cooling. This is Sunday night by the way. We've got around 15° close to the surface and then it rises just in the lowest 100 m or so up to 20°.

[00:06:48]Now that would indicate that somewhere in southern England or Wales on Sunday night that's about 100 meters or so or perhaps even less will be above this inversion and get a temperature of about 20° and if there's there's an observation station sampling that air that temperature would be record-breaking for the overnight period in May. So 18.9 C the warmest night in May. That record under threat. Not just that, but I mentioned 33 Celsius is possible. That would also be a record-breaking temperature because the May all-time temperature record is 32.8 Celsius. And this is bank holiday Mondays focusing on East Anglia and the Southeast because that's where the highest temperatures will be. And it's showing the probability of 33 Celsius or higher. And it's showing the most likely areas where we're going to see the higher temperatures really London very likely.

[00:07:51]And just to the west of London, some of the home counties also an indication there across parts of East Anglia. And actually these probabilities are a little bit lower than we actually think be because we're looking at lots of different computer models. And we rate the chance of that May temperature record being broken at 80%. still a 20% chance it won't be broken, but 80% really quite remarkable at this range to say that that temperature record will be broken. Actually, going back to that a sec, we've got a similar graphic that focuses on Wales and this is on Tuesday.

[00:08:22]Wales's temperatures peak on Tuesday.

[00:08:26]Wales temperature record back um Newport is 30.6 Celsius. And this shows that well Newport, Swansea, Cardiff could be in the running for seeing 31 Celsius or higher on Tuesday. There's a 30% chance we reckon of the May temperature record being broken for Wales. Uh it just depends on whether the air temperature is sampled by the um observation network of course.

[00:08:58]So temperatures peaking Monday, Tuesday across England and Wales. But whether you've got 33 degrees in the Southeast or 28 Celsius in Manchester, it's widespread sunny skies across England and Wales in particular through the weekend and then more and more sunshine for Scotland and Northern Ireland as the weekend goes on. So if you're spending time outdoors, just a word of caution. I know everyone's very sensible with this sort of thing, but these are the kinds of UV levels we can expect. Widely high. This is Friday. Not much change through Saturday, Sunday, and into Monday. Put a few of these values on for Scotland as well. So, increasingly high for Northern Ireland, moderate for Scotland. Take note of that. And pollen levels as well. Put a few of these on. They're going to be starting to head upwards mostly across southern parts of the UK. So, some highs in there, moderates as well. Grass pollen season is approaching. And one final word of caution as well for uh this weekend. We do unfortunately hear a lot about people jumping into very cold water at this time of year and getting into trouble. And so just want to emphasize that sea surface temperatures despite inland temperatures being up to the low30s, sea surface temperatures are 9 Celsius towards the northeast of the UK, 13 Celsius towards the southwest. And of course got rivers, lakes, and other bodies of waters that will be cold after the spring so far. So cold water shock a very real thing to be aware of. And just to zoom in here as well, those sea surface temperatures are going to make a difference for coastal areas. So if you think 31 Celsius in Norwich, I'm going to head to the coast, go to Great Yarmouth or whatever, actually these temperatures still likely a bit too high in the model. We reckon more likely high teens on those beaches because there's a bit of a an onshore breeze. Now, I promised I'd be talking about Scotland and Northern Ireland. So, just to finish up with that, Tuesday, sunshine expands across the whole of the UK. Into Wednesday, it sticks around.

[00:11:18]Temperatures heading upwards and peaking for Northern Ireland on Wednesday, Thursday at 26 Celsius, outside chance of 27 Celsius, somewhere towards the north and west of Northern Ireland. And similarly for Scotland, Scotland's highest temperatures through this spell likely Wednesday, Thursday next week. So bit more mix through the weekend, cooler, cloudier. Then we've got the widespread sunshine. Wednesday, Thursday, 26 or 27 Celsius most likely for Wednesday and Thursday. And that high pressure sticks around throughout most of next week, if not the whole of the rest of May. So if you've got half term off, great news. loads of scope for getting outside and enjoying the weather, but please do it safely.

[00:12:07]Protect yourself from UV and uh bear in mind that cold water shock.