Watching the Caribbean for Tropical Activity, Official NOAA Hurricane Season Forecast • 21/05/26

Indexed: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]Hi guys, it is Danny and welcome to this update video. I trust and hope you're doing really awesome. So, we have quite a bit to discuss in this video. So, firstly, we've got the official 2026 hurricane season forecast from NA, which is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

[00:00:21]So, we're going to be looking at that.

[00:00:23]that will be dissecting the details surrounding the prediction for the season why they're expecting what they're expecting. And in addition to that, we are continuing to keep watch on the Western Caribbean. Not for anything imminent, but as we close out the month of May and welcome June, which also kickstarts the season, we could see something attempt to get itself together in this area. We'll be looking at some model runs for that as well.

[00:00:51]But we're starting out with the typical weather updates. So across the northern Caribbean, there is a bit of increase in atmospheric instability. So that's helping out to influence quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity in sections of Cuba, Jamaica, especially in the west, and even towards sections of Haiti. And as we head uh further east towards the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Larantles, we've got some low-level clouds. Those are moving in and helping to bring some moisture likely contributing to rainfall. And this will continue into tomorrow.

[00:01:25]And then across sections of the eastern Pacific, lots of moisture over here going towards northern South America.

[00:01:32]Similar story. So, uh, as we head into tomorrow, this is what the rain forecast is looking like. And more color means more rain. So for sections of the Bahamas going to Cuba, maybe a few spots in the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Hispanola, there could be additional periods of heavy downpours and prolonged periods of heavy rain can result in some level of flooding in the floodprone areas. So please stay safe guys if you should encounter any flood waters.

[00:02:03]And again with all that moisture headed in for sections of Puerto Rico, go into the lesser especially Guadaloop through St. Lucia, we could see uh some increased rainfall activity here. Maybe a few heavy downpours at times.

[00:02:18]And further south though, headed towards St. Vincent, the Grenardines, Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago not going to be very active. Barbados may definitely expect some showers. And then headed to northern South America, the Guyanas will be active. We're seeing these more vibrant shadings of red going towards Venezuela. Colombia, same thing. ABC Islands, not much color, which means limited chance of rain. I'll say near a 0% chance of any substantial rain there.

[00:02:45]And then for Panama going to Costa Rica, we could see some showers around.

[00:02:49]Likewise, uh, Nicaragua going to Honduras, El Salvador, sections of southern Guatemala, and also southern Biz. The offshore islands, much rain not in the forecast.

[00:03:01]So that is what is expected in terms of rainfall activity. So something pretty similar to what is going on today.

[00:03:09]Now we go on to this outlook. This was released earlier uh from the again Noah the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and they are expecting a below normal hurricane season. So we see a couple ranges here. Firstly, this pie chart is showing the probability of whether we'll see an above near or below normal season. So we see that the green shade and which represents below normal activity is the dominant one taking up 55% of this pie chart and then a 35% chance of a near-normal season is depicted by the blue shaden and this uh yellow this mustardish color representing a very low 10% chance of above normal season. And uh you may have seen the news or you know if you've been keeping up with my channel as well, El Nino, that's been a word that we've been hearing quite a bit recently. So El Nino results in increased global temperatures generally, but it helps to suppress the hurricane season cuz I've been seeing the misinformation uh even from uh persons here in Jamaica, people thinking, okay, because it's going to be so hot this summer that means the season's going to be crazy. No, not necessarily. What happens is because of that increased in uh that increase in uh temperatures across the oceans, especially for the Pacific Ocean where the El Nino regions are located that actually kicks up thunderstorm activity. Let me go to this graphic here. It kicks up thunderstorm activity over here. So, the Pacific season will likely be a pretty active one. But because of all of that, more strong upper level winds are generated and those are hostile for development in the Atlantic based development generally. So when all of this is being pushed over to the Atlantic, it creates an unfavorable environment for tropical cyclones. So a storm will be trying to develop but because those upper level winds are so strong it just continues to get ripped apart even if temperatures are warm to actually fuel developments. So that is how Elino typically helps to suppress activity in the hurricane season. That said, it doesn't mean that right throughout the season we'll have those conditions, but they will likely be dominant, which means there will be times when things may get conducive in the Atlantic to favor the development of something. So, we are seeing ranges here. We've got uh 8 to 14 named storms expected, of which three to six could become hurricanes. And of the number of hurricanes, we could potentially see as little as one and as many as three major hurricanes. And just for reference, in case you're not familiar, a major hurricane is basically category 3, four, or five. But the biggest thing that I want to really say to you guys, despite hearing that, okay, below normal season is likely, it only takes one. We saw that last year for the most part, there wasn't anything too crazy. But then there was late season Hurricane Melissa, record-breaking category 5 hurricane that slammed into Jamaica, devastating the country, the western half of the country, going into Cuba and bringing its impacts towards the Bahamas as well.

[00:06:30]So, it only takes one. We could have as many as 20 storms and none of them uh that are significant actually hit land.

[00:06:40]And then it can have as little as 14 storms as what we had last year. And then there's that one major hurricane, that talk of the town. So it just takes that perfect moment for things to be conducive and we could see something major brew provided all conditions are conducive to allow that to happen, guys.

[00:06:59]So this isn't to say, okay, I'm not going to prepare for the hurricane season. I'm not going to focus on it too much. No, we still have to be vigilant.

[00:07:08]you still have to take the necessary precautions, especially if you're in the risk zone, which includes the Caribbean and uh the Bahamas, Turks and Cos, the Gulf Coast, East Coast of the US, and also Central America. So, Central America will be at risk not just from the potential of seeing maybe a few systems from the Atlantic, but the Pacific if there's lots of storms forming pretty close to land. And if uh the wind the steering pattern is right, sometimes they may make landfall and bring devastating impacts. So that's also going to be a potential. But overall, uh we could see less storms than normal this hurricane season.

[00:07:52]Now, as it relates to the upcoming uh well, let's say within 10 days or so, we're going to be seeing the possibility of early season action. So, not that yes, we're going to be seeing a tropical storm being named, but we could have at least a rain surge. That seems pretty likely. And that is from something called the Central American Gy. Now, what is this? It is a broad area of low pressure and it helps to increase moisture and atmospheric instability which leads to lots of rain and as suggested by the name primarily for Central America. And because of all of this, we could have these little isolated areas of low pressure forming and then they get fueled by all that moisture and actually develop, provided the conditions are right enough for that to happen. So, this is something that we typically observe in the early and the late part of the hurricane season. And as we're going to be headed into the next uh several days, we're going to be looking at some model runs here.

[00:08:58]And we are starting out with the GFS. So these green shadings indicate the moisture and then these black squiggly lines you see all over the screen are for uh isobars and those are lines joining areas of equal pressure. So this is the time here as we're going to be heading into next Friday the 29th of May. Let's see what is expected. So by that time take a look at this. We see these black isabars kind of getting more circular here in the Pacific and we see some moisture. So an airflow pressure definitely trying to form. Also notice lots of these green shadings now across sections of the north and west Caribbean. So things could get active here in terms of rain but eventually we may see something attempt to form. So in the Pacific the GFS model is definitely showing that we could see a tropical cyclone at that time. And in the northwest Caribbean, it does show this huge rain surge. Nothing too defined at that point. But then as we head further out going to Wednesday of the following week, the 3rd of June, it does show something. Nothing very strong, but nonetheless, a potential tropical system attempting to develop. So this is just one model run. However, I have been observing for a couple days well now, likely over a week, and there is a potential that we may see something attempt to get itself together. Nothing strong, especially this early on in the season. Conditions are not normally uh perfect to really influence significant development in the Pacific. Though for this system, we do see it being quite strong and defined. This value here represents the minimum central pressure and that 94 uh 54 that you see that's like major hurricane which the GFS is expecting at that time. Going on to the Euro model is it in agreement? Many people tend to prefer Euro over GFS because Euro is not as aggressive with model runs in predicting tropical cyclones. So, as we head to the same time going into Friday, Saturday, uh, next week, we see this huge rain surge here. So, for parts of the Northwest Caribbean, go into the Eastern Gulf, Florida, uh, the Euro is actually showing that rain surge. It's not showing anything defined. Notice we're not seeing those isobars in a circular manner, uh, manner. But as we head out, we see that area of low uh flow pressure forming just off the southeastern US in that area. So we do see some hints that we could potentially see uh something form. And even as I mentioned earlier as well in the month of June, this is a typical area that we want to watch for development. Not to say that storms can't develop elsewhere, that they can't come in from here or uh come up here. So that's not to say it cannot happen, but it's just not common in the month of June. It's mostly the vicinity of Central America again because that gy helps to really increase a lot of moisture which can lead to the formation of tropical cyclones. So of course guys, as usual, I will be keeping you posted on all that is happening. And that's pretty much what I wanted to bring to your attention in this video, letting you know what the most recent prediction is for the hurricane season.

[00:12:21]the short-term conditions and also what we may see happen within the next couple weeks. So, that's it for now and I do hope you found this video to be informative. If you have any questions, as always, you can feel free to drop them in the comments. I'll get to you when I can. And remember to always be weatherwise.