Bond Vigilantes Welcome New Fed Chair Warsh With Loud Bronx Cheer

本站收录: 2026-05-22

[00:00:01][music] [music] >> Hello everybody. It's Monday, May 18th.

[00:00:19]How time flies when we're having so much fun.

[00:00:23]Um However, it's not 11:00 a.m. which is the time I usually do these things, but it's midnight. It's 12:01 a.m. on May 18th and the reason for that is pre-recording our webinar. I have another commitment, family commitment for this morning. So, I figured we'd spend some quality time together this this evening and uh there won't be a Q&A. You can always uh send me a email if you have any questions, but I'll try to cover quite a bit of uh information here with charts and so on.

[00:01:08]Look, um very interesting times we live in.

[00:01:11]Obviously, we've had a the stock market at all-time record high on Thursday, Thursday of last week.

[00:01:20]And then Friday, the market was down.

[00:01:23]The S&P 500 was down 1.2% and yes, ever since then, you know, over the weekend anyways, from what I'm reading, people are kind of freaking out about uh the sell-off in the stock market even though we were at a record high just on Thursday. But the concern is really the sell-off in the bond market. Bond yields have been rising around the world including the US for several weeks as a result of the Gulf War and its impact on oil prices, which then has had an impact on energy prices and CPIs.

[00:02:07]And there seems to be some indication in at least the US PPI that these inflationary pressures are spreading beyond just energy and are creating another inflation problem the way we had back in '21 and '20 '22.

[00:02:27]And is certainly something that needs to be considered. But I would also point out that it's very interesting. I don't know that it was a coincidence, but uh Friday was the first day that Kevin Warsh uh checked into his new office at the Fed as Fed chair, the new Fed chair.

[00:02:53]And as we all know, Kevin Warsh has been uh pushing uh the Fed to lower interest rates. Now he's in a position to uh to perhaps do that uh now that he's chair of the Fed.

[00:03:07]And uh the bond vigilantes are basically uh uh disagreeing with uh the that kind of viewpoint. And I think you know, people have been asking me uh don't the markets always test the new Fed chair?

[00:03:23]And I guess the answer is yes, they do.

[00:03:26]And this time around it's the bond market that's doing it. So, my friends the bond vigilantes uh aren't uh predisposed to believe that the right course for the Fed is to lower interest rates here. Clearly they are pushing for higher rates. And uh they're kind of taking charge here. They're they're The bond vigilantes have always had this attitude that if fiscal and monetary policies aren't going to maintain law and order in the uh capital markets and the credit markets and then they'll do so.

[00:03:58]And so the bond vigilantes are basically pushing uh Warsaw to join the the tightening camp here which we started to see it in the April FOMC minutes. There was some indication and we saw it well it was more than that in the statement. We saw that while Moran once again dissented and voted for a rate decline there were three dissenters that wanted to get rid of the easing bias in the FOMC minutes.

[00:04:35]And now it's pretty clear after what we've seen in the CPI and the PPI and the relatively strong economy the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed is the economy is actually growing at 4% a real GDP at an annual rate now that may come down but that's what it looks like right now. I know retail sales looked weak but the control group was relatively firm and it was one of the reasons that the Federal Reserve of Atlanta's GDP now model was uh revised to the to the upside in terms of real economic activity.

[00:05:13]So the labor market also looks pretty pretty firm. We've had a couple of months where the employment numbers have been better than expected initial claims remain low so clearly the the risks of uh in terms of the dual mandate the risks of rising unemployment has actually gone down while the risk of inflation is clearly gone up. No wonder there were three dissenters in April saying that uh they wanted to get rid of the easing bias. Uh now undoubtedly in the June meeting of the FOMC, uh, I think just about all of them uh, will all of the participants, uh, will, uh, be pushing for, uh, getting rid of the easing bias. And I don't think they're going to want to go just from there to to a neutral stance.

[00:06:06]I think they're going to go straight for a tightening bias. Question is, uh, what will, uh, the new Fed chair, uh, Kevin Warsh do? I don't think, uh, the first meet at his first meeting he wants to be the only dissenter. I think, uh, you know, Morans gone. My Moran has has, uh, moved on.

[00:06:27]And so, uh, the only, uh, kind of, uh, Trump, uh, influenced, uh, uh, or or Trump, uh, supporting, uh, Fed official now is in fact Kevin Warsh.

[00:06:44]But does he really want to dissent and say that, "Hey, no matter what we see in inflation, no matter what we see that the economy is doing, uh, productivity is going to make a big comeback here and the AI revolution is the real deal.

[00:06:57]That's going to, uh, lead to lower inflation.

[00:07:01]And the Fed therefore should be anticipating all that and actually lowering interest rates. So, just ignore all that noise that we're going to see for the next few months of higher inflation." As you know, we're still in the roaring 2020s camp. We're still big believers in the productivity stories.

[00:07:19]We still believe that productivity, uh, will keep, uh, a lid on unit, uh, labor costs and that'll help to offset these inflationary pressures.

[00:07:29]Uh, but, uh, meanwhile, the, um, it, you know, that's that's that's nice, uh, that we share that view with the the Fed chair, but, uh, uh, his job is to maintain the Fed's credibility uh, relative to what the markets are concerned about. And right now the markets aren't uh focusing on a roaring 2020 scenario, which has worked uh very well for the first 7 years of the decade. Uh but along the way there have been stress tests, and right now the bond vigilantes are stressing the uh providing a stress test of the uh roaring 2020s uh thesis. Uh they are concerned about stagflation. Uh they're really concerned about inflation more than a a stagnating economy. A stagnating economy doesn't usually uh bother them.

[00:08:17]Uh but they are concerned that uh uh Warsh uh is in a position of influence. He's the Fed chair.

[00:08:24]But it's very, very unlikely uh that uh he's going to have any influence on uh on changing the Fed's course here. And the Fed's course here is going to be dominated by what the bond vigilantes are pushing for, uh which is don't even bother going to neutral at the June meeting. Go straight for for a tightening bias, if not an actual uh rate increase. Uh If if the Fed were to provide a a rate increase at the June meeting, that would be a total surprise uh to everybody, but it might actually increase the Fed's credibility, and bond yields might actually come down. So the the Warsh paradox might be that uh if uh Warsh does the complete pivot and says under the circumstances, we really do need to move to a tightening bias.

[00:09:13]Not only that, but he supports actually tightening rates in June, uh the bond market might be very impressed with that, and bond yields might actually fall.

[00:09:23]But I'm just speculating. I'm just talking out loud here about what could happen. Uh most likely development is uh in June there'll be a a move to uh a tightening bias, and at the July meeting uh there'll be a a rate hike. I don't know if there'll be more rate hikes after that. Um this is a very fluid situation. There there could be.

[00:09:46]Uh but then again, uh let's see how the uh oil price uh plays out. Right now, the war is still on. Uh the ceasefire is still on.

[00:09:57]The blockade of Iran is still on. The blockade of the strait is still on.

[00:10:02]And yet the remarkable thing is that the oil prices aren't a lot higher. And maybe part of the answer is that as I've said before, Russia is probably selling a lot of oil to China and India, maybe to other other countries uh one way or the other. The US is exporting more oil.

[00:10:18]Venezuela is selling more oil. And maybe most importantly, the Chinese economy looks actually pretty weak. We just had a batch of economic indicators come out for China, and the retail sales numbers were very weak again. So, that uh might be a a good fortune fortunate development to in keeping the price of oil from zooming uh much uh much higher.

[00:10:42]Why don't we uh have a look at uh some charts here? Uh you know, my basic view is I'm still uh arguing for 8,250 on the S&P 500 by the end of the year.

[00:10:55]I think that uh we may very well move sideways, even have a a small pullback um following the sell-off on Friday. Uh I think the bond yield uh is at an important level here at 4.60%.

[00:11:12]If it goes higher than that, it'll probably uh be get up to somewhere between 4 and 3/4 and 5%. I think that would be a pretty good opportunity to buy buy bonds and stocks.

[00:11:25]Um and uh all that could hap- play out pretty rapidly, as we've seen in this recent uh pickup in the bond yield.

[00:11:34]Well, let's go to the charts.

[00:11:39]Uh let's first start out with the morning briefing charts and that's uh uh the morning briefing is titled uh Bond vigilantes welcome new Fed chair Warsh with loud Bronx cheer. Um I mean, what else can I mean, that kind of that kind of says it all and I think it's fairly accurate.

[00:11:59]Um Friday uh was his first day and we saw bond yields jumping. Take a look here at figure one. Let me make the chart a little bit bigger.

[00:12:08]There you go.

[00:12:10]Uh so we saw this the the 10-year bond yield jump from uh like uh 450 uh to well, it was actually lower than that. Uh now it's up at 459, so you can see we had a big jump here.

[00:12:29]Uh I guess back here it was more like 4440 or so.

[00:12:34]Uh but it was a big jump in one day and then the 30-year jumped to 512, which is the highest it's been in quite some time.

[00:12:44]Uh the two-year note yield, which is a pretty good indicator of what the fixed income markets think the Fed's going to do next, well, that rose up to uh 4.09%.

[00:12:58]I think tonight it's up to 4.1%.

[00:13:02]Uh but uh you could see that when the two-year was going up, that was a good leading indicator for what we saw happen with the with the with the federal funds rate.

[00:13:15]Um and uh then uh the two-year was below the federal funds rate signaling that uh there would be a a decline in the federal funds rate and as there was and then it's only recently that we've seen the two-year rise above the federal funds rate range which is 3.5% to um 3.75% right now. And so the two years currently saying that that's that's too low and needs needs to be raised as is the bond yield.

[00:13:50]Meanwhile, this is not just a US phenomenon. We're seeing bond yields going up around the world in the major developed economies. China's kind of the outlier but everybody else Japan, Germany, France, US, UK, we were all seeing bond yields going higher. So it clearly reflects concerns about fiscal deficit excesses but uh more so more than that it reflects concerns that inflation we're getting a second wave of inflation um uh comparable to what we had in that 21 and 22. Uh back then we had um uh significant demand for uh goods. We had significant supply chain disruptions and that kind of was the first trigger for inflation and then we had an oil spike when Russia invaded Ukraine.

[00:14:44]We also had a wage price spiral.

[00:14:46]Uh what's different this time? Well, arguably the supply chain disruptions are more limited uh though uh uh maybe more serious in terms of oil being uh rather important commodity. Uh there are issues with fertilizer perhaps. The helium thing I think has been overdone.

[00:15:06]Uh looks like uh there really isn't going to be a shortage of of helium which is necessary for production of semiconductors for example and for running MRIs.

[00:15:18]Uh uh but this time around And don't think we're going to see a wage price spiral.

[00:15:22]Uh the supply chain disruptions are different from what we had last time, but maybe still uh significant. But it But we also have an oil price spike as we did uh back then, but this oil's price spike uh may be um um more troublesome because of the Strait of Hormuz uh blockade. Anyways, uh the UK's had uh all kinds of uh political um concerns uh about the government being uh too too too lax with uh its budget. In addition to that, they have an inflation problem.

[00:16:01]Uh Germany, same story. German yields have uh gone up. Uh Japanese yields have gone up uh significantly. So, it's uh it's been a global phenomenon and uh to the extent that yields go up overseas, that puts upward pressure on yields in the US because foreigners tend to be a big buyers of US securities, but less so if they can get decent yields at home.

[00:16:26]Uh let's move on here a little bit.

[00:16:29]Uh so, here we have an inflation problem. The uh CPI wasn't uh all that bad. Uh the uh PPI was bad. As you can see, this is uh the the PPI and uh it is kind of reminiscent of what happened here where the PPI took a jump up. There were uh signs that uh energy infla- uh energy inflation was spreading to some other areas of uh the economy.

[00:16:57]It was widening becoming a widening problem. And uh the undoubtedly, this will lead to a higher CPI and PCE D. I don't think we're going to be be looking at this kind of situation, I think. Uh but you know, I mean, who who really knows? I mean, it's going to depend on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz uh and the extent to which uh uh Russia uh meets some of the uh shortfall. The US, Venezuela, uh other oil-producing countries might means meet the the shortfall. China might might see see uh less oil demand growth uh because its economy is weakening.

[00:17:39]Um Here's another take on the inflation problem. This time it's uh on a core basis. Uh same story. Uh core inflation is up a lot for the PPI and that's a harbinger of uh more trouble for the CPI and the PCE D.

[00:17:58]Uh meanwhile, um it's true that we don't have a wage-price spiral, uh but I guess we could. Uh baby boomers are retiring very rapidly. As you can see, this is uh people who are not in the labor force, 65 and older, as a percent of total not in the labor force. And so you can see that the percentage of uh people dropping out, the baby boomers, is increasing uh rapidly. Uh so that reduces the supply of la- of labor. Uh meanwhile, the immigration uh restrictions also reduces supply of labor.

[00:18:33]Uh and and the demand for labor seems to be picking picking up somewhat, so that could be something to watch. So we'll be watching average hourly earnings for all that. Right now, they seem to be uh relatively tame. So no concerns for wage-price spiral now. And again, that's a a big difference from what happened in '21-'22, right? Uh labor market was much tighter.

[00:18:56]There was much greater demand for labor than supply back then. And so we had a wage-price spiral. That's not likely this time. Uh we do agree with um uh Kevin Warsh that uh productivity um is uh is is going to continue to to grow at a faster pace. That should keep a lid on unit labor cost inflation. A unit labor cost inflation in the first quarter year-over-year was down to 1.2% and that should uh offset this this inflation should offset some of the inflation at least on a short-term basis. We also have the uh owner's rent inflation that's that's moderating. So, yeah, we're we have an inflation problem, but it's not of the magnitude of '21, '22 and uh that will could be that could keep Warsh kind of pounding the table on let's let's look through all these short-term inflation problems and recognize that uh beyond one once they settle down um the economy uh is not going to have an inflation problem. So, why not stimulate the economy to get more productivity? Uh again, we're sympathetic with all that, but uh we don't think the economy needs lower rates. We we've said that uh really for the past couple of years. Fed wouldn't just wouldn't listen to us and uh uh we uh we were wrong. The Fed went ahead and didn't listen to us. They lowered rates, but we were absolutely right that the bond vigilantes wouldn't buy into it and bond yields actually uh went up. So, uh uh that's that's what's been happening.

[00:20:37]Uh again, labor market this uh is in equilibrium. Back here, we had uh demand a lot higher than supply. So, a very prone to wage-price spiral back here.

[00:20:49]Um What else? Uh Fed funds rates come down.

[00:20:53]The uh two-year says the Fed funds rate should go up. Um we're not quite seeing that in the uh the the futures market the federal funds futures market is more like uh no no rate uh hikes or cuts over the next 6 to 12 months. But, uh I we're going to go with what the two years saying.

[00:21:14]Uh, meanwhile, the other thing that the Fed needs to factor in is and and puts a lot of weight on is the inflation rate at the expected inflation rate. And not much not much signs of trouble yet.

[00:21:31]When you look at expect expected inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York consumer survey, you can see that the April is 3.2 for the three-year and 3.0 for the five years. So, that doesn't look like that looks like inflation is still well anchored. And I guess Warsh could say, "What's the rush to raise rates if inflation still anchored expectations?"

[00:22:00]If you look at the consumer sentiment survey, uh, the one-year is at 4.5% Uh, but again, the longer term is at 3.4%.

[00:22:09]Uh, but that's still kind of high relative to where it had been back here, which was closer to 2.5%.

[00:22:18]Um, and then market anticipations of inflation have been increasing whether you look at the at 10-year US Treasury yield minus the 10-year TIPS yield or you look at the five-year five-year forward inflation-linked swaps.

[00:22:38]>> [snorts] >> Um, the rest is about the consumer. There's a couple of reports that came out on the consumer and basically confirmed that, uh, nothing, uh, nothing There hasn't really been much change over the past year in the either the balance sheet viability of consumer spending uh or some of these uh credit issues with regards to delinquencies. Uh now, let's take a quick breeze through the through the quick takes. Um and the quick takes uh uh the market call is uh titled time for a break or a break. So, uh a lot of ambiguity there is time for a break could be a time for the market to just take a break from uh going straight up or it could be uh mean that the after going straight up, it's time for the market to take a break uh or so on and so forth. Anyways, we're in the uh market uh uh probably uh is going to pause here for a while and uh could could have a pullback. Um I don't know that it'll be comparable to what we had earlier this year. I think a lot of people would love that cuz there's still a lot of people who uh agree with us that uh there's a that the that the future looks pretty bright for the US economy and that any sell-off is probably a buying opportunity.

[00:24:06]Uh anyways, we're at the top of the pack here in the latest Bloomberg survey of uh strategist street strategist. Um and uh you can see that the we're looking for 8,200 and 50. Here's some of the other bulls.

[00:24:23]Morgan Stanley, which typically has had sort of a bearish bias is is up there. So, honestly, I'm a little concerned about that.

[00:24:32]Um but other than that, uh you can look at it on your own.

[00:24:38]Um the the average is uh 76 12. We did get to 7,500 and we were looking at 7,700 as a year-end target and a week or so ago, raised it to 82 8250 on uh basically the results from the first quarter earnings and all the upward revisions and expected growth for earnings over the rest of the year and into next year. Well, on the other hand, we still have a an oil problem. Uh we had one back here. Uh you can see that we have uh a similar one. We're not quite as high, but we're high enough.

[00:25:16]And we're Josh, you know, jumping around here the way we did back then.

[00:25:22]Um and I think we can expect that this will be come coming down uh one way or another. I mean, oil uh is a commodity and the best cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. And there could be some demand destruction maybe in China uh and India. Um I don't know that the US uh you know, I don't know that $5 gasoline is going to really cause a lot of people to drive less.

[00:25:50]Could, I suppose. Uh but the other thing is I think we'll be surprised that I mean, oil's uh fluid and it uh fluids can flow around and one way or the other oil uh may very well get out of the Middle East uh and come come out from other areas to meet meet demand.

[00:26:08]Uh and I think the US uh so I don't know that I don't think we're going to see 125, 150, 200 even if the strait remains closed.

[00:26:17]Uh if if it does remain closed, I think we're going to stick around 100. I think the US economy can handle it better than other economies.

[00:26:25]Uh meanwhile, was it It was just Wednesday of last week that we looked at this chart and told you that it was around uh here. We told you that it could uh get up to 460. Well, it did that it did it by Friday.

[00:26:40]And now, uh if it does break through to the upside here uh four and three quarters to five is possible. Uh at five, the Treasury will probably play more games and issue more bills and fewer bonds as as they did I think when we got here, yeah. Remember that uh was in 2024 uh we got up from uh 4% to 5% in 3 months.

[00:27:08]And Janet Yellen right here uh announced that the Treasury needed to raise more money, but they do it in the bill market not the the note and bond market and that helped to bring the bond yield down. But so did uh lower than expected inflation this time around. Uh we we have more of an inflation problem.

[00:27:27]Uh you can see here the forward PE versus the bond yield. You would expect that if the bond yield goes up the forward PE would go down. Uh that could be another uh reason for a um um some pullback in the market, but uh then again uh we have had the bond yield going up and and the PE going up. So on a short-term basis they they can uh it doesn't have to be that when rates go up the PE goes down.

[00:27:58]Uh meanwhile um the um uh equal weighted S&P 500 uh uh really didn't break out to to a new high and it uh it didn't go up uh all that much above its 200-day moving average the way that the S&P 500 uh market cap weighted index did. So this has more potential for a pullback than than this one. This is more like reflecting the S&P uh let's call them the impressive 493.

[00:28:30]And it's conceivable that uh the market would kind of go sideways and some correction in the magnificent seven and AI-related trades while the other impressive 493 hold their own because we are seeing uh expansion of uh earnings breath. Uh meanwhile, uh uh there is a sign of some irrational exuberance here. If you look at the S&P 500 consensus expected long-term earnings growth, look at that. It's up to 21.2.

[00:29:00]I mean, it's well above what we had when uh irrational exuberance got uh long-term earnings growth up to about 18%. Now, we're 21.2%.

[00:29:12]Uh this was uh back uh when the Fed Remember we had the pandemic uh sell-off uh here.

[00:29:24]Well, we had the pandemic bear market here, if you can barely see it. Um and uh then the the Fed flooded the system with um liquidity.

[00:29:36]Uh the Treasury came in with uh checks to uh provide uh some income support to for people and uh that obviously sent uh expectations to the moon here. And a lot of that was the um magnificent uh seven. Then it came uh right back down here during that uh bear market we had in 2022.

[00:30:02]Then shot right back up, and now we're we're here. So, you know, is this irrational exuberance? Uh yeah, to a certain extent. And the question is uh do we need to have a bear market to correct it? And uh not necessarily. I don't think so.

[00:30:19]Why? Cuz the earning story is uh is still very strong. Forward earnings all-time record high. It kind of edged flat in the latest week, but the earnings reporting season is over, and the earnings reporting season led to significant increases in expectations for earnings for 2026 and and 2027.

[00:30:40]Uh this is the the quarterly numbers, the quarterly numbers uh for this year are all in the double digits.

[00:30:47]So, obviously the first quarter surge led to that kind of expectations that that'll continue.

[00:30:58]Earnings breadth measures that that we have, they all look quite good. So, that kind of supports the possibility of this market has been a relatively uh concentrated market since March 31st when the market took off.

[00:31:18]And now maybe we'll have some correction in the leadership, the thin leadership and kind of a broadening out in the breadth or at least those the rest of the market would hold up.

[00:31:30]This is another reason to be optimistic.

[00:31:33]Earnings expectations are not up just for the S&P 500 at a record high, but also the X S&P 400 and S&P 600.

[00:31:46]We did expect that the Magnificent Seven would underperform this year. They did so until the war broke out and until the market sold off and then since March 31st they've out outperformed and now maybe it's time for them to underperform for a little while.

[00:32:10]With regards to pullbacks, we're not seeing the kind of sentiment indications for a pullback that we had seen earlier this year when we anticipated a pullback.

[00:32:26]This time around the bull bear ratios are not signaling that there are too many bulls out there. There's and now I'm sure after Friday uh we get the next bull bear ratios for this week, uh they'll probably be down.

[00:32:42]So, uh that's an indication that uh we're probably not going to have much of a pullback in the market.

[00:32:48]Uh this hasn't worked out too well for us.

[00:32:50]This is the stay-home versus go-global.

[00:32:54]Uh we uh we we we got this right uh but in in In other words, staying home versus go-global, we've been that since 2010.

[00:33:05]Uh but uh now um in 2025, uh go-global worked. Uh late 2025, we thought uh maybe we we we'd go with that. Uh but now with uh the war, with oil prices, um the US uh seems to be in a better position uh than Europe and emerging markets. So, uh this uh has stopped working for us uh and the stay-home may uh outperform for a while longer. Uh but we still think um better valuation multiples and uh you know, I think once the price of oil starts coming down again, we'll see this uh working again. Go-global will should outperform.

[00:33:49]Uh people asked us to update on gold.

[00:33:51]Gold, uh we're uh we're now shooting for 5,500 uh by year end.

[00:33:58]Obviously, uh higher interest rates um aren't going to be helping gold very much. The stronger dollar as a result of higher interest rates uh and higher oil prices, that's not going to help gold very much. Uh but uh you can see where right now still on an uptrend uh and uh with uh let's call it a correction in in the gold price. Uh let's see how uh how it does around here. Uh look, I've told you that uh I'm not claiming to be uh uh much of an expert on gold uh when it crossed above 2,000 to a record high a couple of years ago, I said that uh it's probably going to continue it's probably going to be in a bull market because central banks are buying uh gold uh and then I added some other nuances like Chinese investors buying gold, Indian investors have had a long tradition of buying gold. Uh all seemed to work out uh pretty well. Um and then it stopped working. It did get to 5,500 over Yeah, close to 5,500.

[00:35:06]Uh now it's uh more like uh 4,500.

[00:35:10]Um but I'm uh I'm going to stick with that 10,000 by the end of 2029 on the idea that uh if I'm right about the roaring 2020s taking the S&P 500 up to uh uh taking the S&P 500 up to 10,000, that uh rebalancing uh will provide funds uh to go from the stock market into the bond market and into into gold, maybe some other assets as well.

[00:35:40]Uh so uh that's it. Um uh that kind of covers uh what I what I wanted to share with you today. Uh take a look at the quick takes, take a look at the uh morning briefing and uh we'll do the best we can uh keep you posted on our thinking um with with quick takes uh and we're going to get Nvidia on Wednesday, maybe Nvidia will will will save the day. Um Other than that, it's a pretty light week uh for for economic data, so uh uh I guess we'll all be watching the the price of oil for some guidance of uh where things are are in the in the in the Middle East. And again, uh the other issue, of course, is the bond market.

[00:36:24]And um you know, the the faster the bond yields go up, uh the more that's going to put downward pressure on stocks, uh but the sooner that that'll create a buying opportunity in bonds that'll bring bond yields back down the way it did in 2024 when we got the 5%. Uh and that could set the stage for a rebound in the in the stock market. Uh so, that's it. Um have a good week, and uh we'll catch up with you along the way. Thank you.

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