how probability of rain is actually calculated

Indexed: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]It is strictly probability. So, like, 0 to 100, your probability of seeing rain.

[00:00:05]>> Okay, so probability, but how it's calculated?

[00:00:08]So, the way it works is they run multiple forecasts in parallel. Uh each forecast will have slightly different starting conditions. So, like, the way the butterfly flaps its wings and you get different uh weather, so they basically simulate different butterflies.

[00:00:25]And then they see what's the percentage of the forecasts that predicted weather at your location.