Bullish on Bitcoin (mostly)

Indiziert: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]Hey everyone, welcome back to Crypto Cash. Thanks again for joining me here.

[00:00:03]Hope you're having a phenomenal day.

[00:00:04]This is awesome stuff here. Uh specifically with the overextension that we're seeing, a nice swift pullback there as soon as US markets open.

[00:00:12]Obviously, London had the same idea as well after sweeping Asia highs here.

[00:00:16]It's uncanny how specifically perfect these candle wicks can be to sweep those previous ranges. Okay, so for the most part at this point, we're kind of in a transition. Okay, so a simple way to understand it is that until yesterday's low is either held or essentially swept, we want to presume that the price action should go up overall. Now, we are tentatively breaking our higher low pattern here. So, that's the reason why today's price action is extremely important to kind of see how much lower this is going to go. All right, so for the most part, uh there's a lot of little reasons why we want to kind of be patient and wait, but at this point, uh there's a lot of reasons also we want to expect the worst and hope for the best.

[00:00:53]Okay. So, I'll explain more. So, what I mean by that here, there's some pretty obvious signs in the back end here, specifically on perpetual futures. That is really just kind of kind of telling here, right? We got significant areas of liquidation both above and below the price action. And I did send out this post earlier, but when it comes to, you know, liquidation specifically on the lower time frames, this is a 3-day time frame. Uh, we can see this lower range of 76,000 that was really heavy between 75 and 76. Not only is it moving up a little bit, but it's also decreasing.

[00:01:23]Whereas we have a lot more intensity here between 78 and 79K. So to me, that shift in momentum there tells me that that up upside liquidity is going to be more so of a target even though the bottom lower downside still makes sense.

[00:01:37]It's less sensible and just shows that, you know, taking a short right now is inherently more risky. Once again, we have pretty good momentum to the upside.

[00:01:44]So a lot of that stuff kind of factors in. We're going to discuss that and a handful of other backend datas that really help us understand a little more clearer and concisely what's actually happening on the back end here, right?

[00:01:54]Some things we want to definitely pay attention to. So, be sure to stick around. Got a good one today.

[00:02:00]All right, folks. Take a look at the backend data. And before we do, hit the like button. Maybe even hit that hype button. I think I enabled it recently.

[00:02:06]Somebody told me to do that. Thank you again. I think it was Jesus uh for uh asking for me to to just add that feature. Right. I really don't know what it is, but if it shows up for you, feel free to hit that button as well. Uh I think it's supposed to help. Anyways, uh long story short here though, when we look at the price action, just kind of jump right in here. Funding rate is still high. Basically telling us that lungs are overleveraged. Uh you can see that kind of reflected here with this big chunk between 76 and 75K. More specifically that 75.7K range, like right there, just below 76.

[00:02:36]And we did send out or I did send out rather uh this we were talking about this earlier just to how that concentration at 76,000 is growing to the downside. It's basically moving.

[00:02:45]It's really not getting that much bigger. The the concept here is that longs continue to take longs as the price goes higher which is why we're seeing the price pull back right now to sweep those late longs. So it's basically the high lever longs are getting everyone in trouble here. So truth is you're part of the problem if you're using anything over 50x leverage.

[00:03:02]I don't I'm not one to talk high 20x leverage majority of my trades, but for the most part at this point, it's important to recognize that that's kind of fueling the potential fire for either downside or upside too. Uh you want to recognize that 787 is also that upside liquidation here. I don't know if you can see this on the charts, but that is essentially the uh the 50 and the 75/00x leverage trades right there. Right? So those are really high leverage trades just kind of hanging out there. So my speculation is that we will still see 79,000 uh to fill the CMI gap here from before not because of liquidation because of just maintaining above that equilibrium. And what that is that 76.5K range is absolutely that level we want to pay attention to. Coincidentally it was our previous uh previous day low but we spent a lot of time at 7 76.5K before the price took off. Right? So we got this kind of like this level here that was very very consistent before the price came up and hasn't really retested yet. We're really close to that here today so far. I wouldn't be surprised we just see a wick down to 765 and a bounce from there. But for the most part, that's a highly contested area. An important level to me to watch for because that's for lack of better terms that point of control for the current range. Right? So maintaining above it is important. So that's kind of something we want to pay attention to here. We can see that perpetual futures is down while spot is still I wouldn't say high. It's just not down with per perpetual futures for lack of better terms. We're not seeing a lot of offloading on spot, more so on leverage, which basically suggests it's a liquidation hunt. It's why the price action pulled back the way that it did to sweep US market lows from yesterday. And now capitulation makes a lot of sense. So the long story short here is just because spot is higher uh than perpetual futures doesn't mean we're not going to go down or up or you know doesn't mean we're going to bounce, right? But it does suggest that when pers go down and spot essentially remains the same or goes higher, there's more, you know, back-end whale buying, if you will, they're the ones buying spot more so than you and I. And the it's showing us that retail is getting is getting hosed today versus that of anyone else, right? So simple, standard, normal stuff. It's really nothing out of character. Uh what is slightly out of character here, and this tells me that this is half the reason why the price pulled back last night or couldn't surpass the 78.2K 2K range because there's like still like $80 million in short um basically short positions that orders that are going to get filled here or soon to get filled if the price returns there. Uh you can see that reflected here this range right here.

[00:05:27]There's a $40 million position at 78222 5 million uh you know 78.3 has 12 million. I mean granted these are just leverage positions right so it doesn't suggest necessarily the price is just going to go right to those levels but a lot of times those have targets on their backs and the price will move towards those positions. But the long story short here is, you know, my whale trader was asked me last night like, "Hey, should I am I safe at shorting at 78 78K." And the short answer was yes, you're safe until those get filled, right? And the concept here is that with there being more interest in that range, the more likelihood the price is going to bounce off of it initially, right?

[00:06:01]So, while it's not a guarantee, you could argue the same thing here. There's a $23 million position that just jumped in 31 minutes ago at 76.3K, right? You could say that that's that's a that's a consideration for, you know, for support, which is tenatively true. But once more, you you take them with a grain of salt. A lot of folks, you know, maybe put too much weight into it. When I send those posts, by the way, folks, those whale order posts, it just kind of give you some perspective on like lower time frame um capitulation zones and often times the price will bounce off those levels. Okay, so let's look at uh let's start with the macro structure first. No, sorry. Let's go to the back end on high block first and just recognize open interest is really low.

[00:06:41]Uh this really suggests here that we are just again in a transition. Generally speaking, when open interest is low, it suggests that whales are not buying or there's just not as much interest. And this range right now just kind of figuring itself out. That in combination with true retail longs being roughly at the same percentage as yesterday leads me to believe that we're still in the same position. Not much has changed. So does that give me confidence? Not necessarily. uh but it doesn't give me the opposite of that, right? I don't feel unconfident because of it. Having said this, we take a look here. This is the 7-day time frame. A little different than the 3-day we already looked at. And this just kind of emphasizes once again 76 to 75K. Yes, still present in liquidation. But as you can see that that intensity is drawn uh drawn lower, right? But the amount of intensity upwards of 80 to 79K is higher now. So more so the the important thing to look at here is that with more liquidation above that that incentivizes the price to go higher. Now obviously we have this local range high of uh 78.4K we got to get past uh that's half the reason why all that liquidation was concentrated there but for the most part we're in a transition right now again trying to figure out if 76.5 or 77K will hold. I'm confident if we see 77,000 or higher today for Asian for US market close then we're much more likely to see further upside. Uh so that's just kind of my concept there. Again, I like to look at the the closures for previous market sessions to kind of anticipate where we're going to go next. Uh since we swept most the local lows, it would make sense to kind of establish a higher low.

[00:08:10]Uh having said that, liquidation delta is pretty much at break even. This also speaks to a transition. So oftentimes these are best times to really not trade. Uh I know it sounds crazy. I know people watch me to try to find opportunity, but for the most part, the best opportunity right now when you're, you know, not sure which way it's going to go is to kind of wait for the direction to be established. Okay, so let's see if there's anything that might be telling us here on the, you know, the different time frames because once again, technical analysis is important, too. Uh, you can't only do one or the other. I think it's important to kind of merge the two with the backend data as well. So, having said that, we got a local range low here at about 75,700.

[00:08:46]Once more, heavy liquidation just below that. Okay, there's a reason for that.

[00:08:49]Most people feel confident and comfortable to put a stop loss just below the local range low. Now, truth is that you could get stopped hunted. Yes.

[00:08:56]But at this point here, it's still less likely. And part of the reason why is because we're seeing a pretty significant overextension. We're now at a nine on TV sequential. I've counted the candles. We're looking at what uh eight out of the last nine candles are essentially red. Uh so for the most part, or sorry, I was eight out of 10 candles. So, ever since we dropped from 82,000 to just say 76,000, we've seen a pretty significant amount of red candles. Right now, it's not to say we're just going to bounce from here because of that, but it's an overextension. Price action typically capitulates. We are seeing this money flow index uh bounce off this 20 range, which is statistically a likelihood of uh you know, return fire, so to speak.

[00:09:32]In other words, price should increase here because there was so much volume flowing out that once money starts coming back in, which we're seeing already, it usually continues higher.

[00:09:41]Okay, so once again, just a statistical favorability there. When we look at the uh 4hour time frame, we do want to recognize we had a pretty significant overextension there. We at an 8 on TD sequential kind of letting us know that, you know, we came in this resistance zone breaking it the first time makes sense it didn't, right? That's a simple way to understand it. Okay, because we got this local range high of 78.4 some confluence with the moving averages and just one of those things where, you know, we barely broke above 50 in the RSI stochastic trying to swing down kind of letting us know that we're overextended. this this standard retracement is is very sensible. Uh now, some might subscribe to the idea that we're just going to go straight down from here because of that. I disagree because there's a lot more contributing factors in the back end, but from a technical standpoint, this is definitely a bearish type of scenario, if you will, on the lower time frames, just kind of letting us know that, hey, we didn't break this local range high. We're probably going to need to either a retest it again or we're going to go lower. Uh generally speaking, in situations like this, we're looking for a higher low, right? So, for lack of better terms, until we close below 76,500 on the 4 hour, we have no reason to, you know, presume we're going to go much lower. And I know it sounds crazy because at that point, we'd have already probably swept the liquidation and we would have gone lower by that time anyways. But from a patient trader standpoint, you know, somebody that doesn't like to FOMO into a uh a long or a short when we're in a transition, what we're looking for here is again higher low. That really is going to help us establish the continuation higher, right? That's how trends are are are formed. So in this case here, while we haven't established a higher high, no big deal. The key here is that we're tentatively establishing higher lows. So me personally, that's more bullish than bearish for lack of better terms. But it's like a 45 sorry 55% versus 45% probability just from that one thing.

[00:11:21]All right. All that said, we look at the the lower time frames here. This is like the 10-minute for example. I like to look at this, give some perspective here. We can see that we are maintaining below our TWAP. That is basically the time weighted average price. a really good perspective on lower time frames.

[00:11:35]Something that's worthwhile in using based on just based it's simply it's it's the time weight average price. It's kind of funky. It's hard to understand but it's based on you know time as well as it's an algorithm effectively being used by market makers in lower time frames and a lot of times it can be put into AI for uh just continuing to trends right so until we shift above this here can presume it's going to go lower but for the most part regardless that fact the the lower time frames here tell us here that we are in a position right now where we got to respect yesterday's low right which is 76.5K so we're seeing this this consistent number right 76.5K grant I'm saying a lot because I feel like I I see it often and it's it's worth noting. So again, maintaining above that to me tells me that we're still in good shape on this uptrend. Uh paying attention to the 4hour time frame though, we want to ensure that we we close above 76.5K today on the 4 hour.

[00:12:28]Uh specifically on the daily two, but 4 hour would be absolutely a good start.

[00:12:31]That would allow us to continue those higher lows, right? Uh between now and then, we've swept majority of all liquidation here. Uh if you look at the 15minute as well, you can kind of see this previous fair value gap from Asia has been fully filled now. Okay, so it's just kind of these these battles between different time zones, right? Asia pumps the price action up here. London kind of goes sideways. Uh US is like, we're going to sweep our lows and your highs and then the price goes higher here.

[00:12:56]Asia's like, yeah, yeah, yeah. 78,200.

[00:12:59]Beat that. And then then they they start pulling the price down. And then London's like, "No, we're going to try again." Fail. comes back down to sweet previous range lows and also New York lows as well and the fair value gap. So the only value really left here is the previous day low if you exclude of course liquidation. But from a daily perspective here, market makers are more interested in kind of screwing the other guys on the on the uh the previous market sessions than they are the the macro structure in all reality. So those are just kind of some things that I kind of like to throw out there. I'm sure that you know some people may agree or disagree with this and that's perfectly fine. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

[00:13:34]So, why don't you comment below? Let me know where you think we're going. Um, we still want to be on the on the on the page here or on the same page of potential for the lower liquidation, right? I would say set a limit order for a long in the 75k range to be safe, right? Or maybe consider that on a hedge for a short too to be on the safe side.

[00:13:50]Uh, once more, we just have slightly larger favorability of upside, but we're in a transition. We want to wait and see how certain levels hold. So my recommendation here, I would say, is just to kind of hang out on the sidelines and and see how we fare today first. All right, if we close above 765, I think we're in pretty good shape to see further upside. Closure below that could incentivize that 74 to 75k range.

[00:14:11]Quick heads up to our traders. We got a 15% discount on trading fees if you use my link to register through Bit Unix.

[00:14:17]Links down below in the description. All right, folks. Let's take a look here at Ethereum. And we talked about Ethereum yesterday. It was slightly better than Bitcoin on uh on the side by side, but generally speaking, we wanted to make sure that we held above this 2120 range.

[00:14:29]Does look like that level's been swept already to hit that $2,100 uh lower support. So, let's see kind of where we're at here for ETH. Quickly to note, side by side, left-hand side is Bitcoin, right hand side is Ethereum. Similar price structure. Nothing really here that's super amazing. I don't really like trading coins that have this this much of a similarity with Bitcoin, especially when we got our liquidation delta at break even. That's not really awesome. Uh while we are maintaining above our open interest range and our point of control, 2100 is a rough estimate for support, there's still a lot more reasons, specifically 2050, uh for the price action to go lower. Keep in mind, could go higher just as well at 2200. These are the heavy liquidation ranges, 2200 and 2050. So the the concept here is that you want to either take a long or short at either of those two levels. That's the rough estimate of what you're think what I'm thinking right now. Um obviously, I'm not going to short or long these in the blinds. I want to reevaluate, maybe set alerts at those ranges. But that's kind of the general concept. Now, if we look at the daily time frame, pretty significant overextension here, synonymous with Bitcoin. We're seeing, you know, nine red candles effectively in a row. And at this point, you know, until we reclaim 2180, it's kind of like that local resistance here for us. Uh, we're probably going to be stuck in this range here of 2180 as low as 2,000. Okay? So, we kind of got this chunk of of potential, you know, trash until whichever side is broken and then we know at that point where we're going from there. So, those are kind of the general thoughts here for for Ethereum.

[00:15:50]ETH is looking stronger uh than, you know, I would say maybe the average memecoin, but it's still not strong enough to want to warn a position with it being very synonymous with Bitcoin for the moment. I think we're more likely to see the price action for um for Ethereum kind of go sideways and just respond to Bitcoin. Depending on what Bitcoin does, ETH will follow. All right, folks. Let's take a look here at Salana and double check some stuff here.

[00:16:12]Now, long story short, or bumper sticker version of how I feel about Salana is that I'm leaning more towards a long. I was considering that yesterday, but the price was overextended and Bitcoin kind of felt like it was going to pull back, which it inevitably did after pull, you know, pushing a little bit further. So, my my consensus here is that along in this range seems sensible. It's just the bumper sticker version, but let's go ahead and double check to see where we're at first. Now, uh to clarify, we got a previous range high of 8550 that tentatively just worked as a new low.

[00:16:39]So, hypothetically, we should bounce from here, uh if trading does the way that it should, right? So, in other words, if Bitcoin doesn't dump, we're in a pretty good place here to see that pivot or that bounce, right? That standard price action continuing, uh, then it breaks high and continues upwards. So, that's usually what you're supposed to see is when the price will break that range and essentially test it as a new low, which we've already kind of seen here so far. So, I like what I see there uh with uh with Salana here on the on the lower time frames. We can see, of course, here as well. Bitcoin kind of coming closer to 77,000 and Salana immediately bouncing as Bitcoin continues to progress lower lows. So for the most part, uh Salana looks pretty strong here to continue higher up. Looks like money is flowing in and it's looking like a pretty decent situation.

[00:17:23]Let's double check the back end here to clarify. I want to see uh just to double check there is a lot of open interest above which but does suggest the price could see $91 in the relative near future. 600 million in liquidation long delta versus uh break even for Bitcoin.

[00:17:37]So once again strong strong strong strong strong uh on this coin is right now for the moment. Having said that $89 is the upper range of liquidation for this coin. So um that's a pretty significant outlier there. We've got confluence between 89 and 90. So once more all the more reason why a likely continuation higher here is u certainly a possibility for Solana. Now taking a look at the let's see here the let's go to the daily time frame kind of get some perspective on this current range. I just want to kind of note this here. The point of control is $85. We're just above that. So, this range right now is looking pretty strong to hold the price action in place. Now, obviously, we had a significant sell-off to get here and uh I wouldn't expect, you know, a moonshot by any stretch on this coin, but with how strong it is versus Bitcoin today so far and technically yesterday as well and kind of breaking its descending trend kind of showing a lot more strength on a lower time frames leads me to believe we're in a transition for this coin and breaking this uh this local range high of 87 is a higher probability. Once more, that does require Bitcoin to not dump towards 75K, which I still think is a lower probability at this point. Uh, this is just a statistical favorability that Solana goes higher at this point. So, me personally, I'm leaning more towards a long versus a short. What a long from 86 to 88 to 90. Uh, and then of course, you know, maybe consider a short a little bit later, but it seems a little premature to kind of want to short this coin when it looks like it's transitioning uh away from the, you know, away from the the bearish divergence it had before. uh 4hour time frame just to clarify maintaining above 50 in the RSI certainly looking positive here. I think there's a good solid chance we go a bit higher for Salana.

[00:19:16]Again, those are my thoughts. What are yours? Why don't you comment below? Let me know. Love to hear it. All right, folks. Quick look here at Sue. Kind of see what's going on. It's responding very well to this uh this pullback. In fact, congrats to our community members who didn't use the stop loss that I recommended in our trade here recently.

[00:19:30]Got some nice profits there. In fact, I think somebody hit uh a good percentage if I'm not mistaken uh yesterday. What was it?

[00:19:39]There we go. 102. Nice. 106 to 111. 112 almost. Well done, JCXB. Uh, now again, the whole reason I like to mention that is because I've been mildly bullish on this coin for the in the last 48 hours roughly. Uh, mainly because of how well it was it was it was remaining above its local range uh point of control and it's it's center line too. It continued to establish higher highs and higher lows.

[00:20:02]While I didn't expect quite the the pump that it had, it's phenomenal that it did and it worked out for most, right? So, great job on that uh in that sense as far as those who you know took longs with confidence in this coin, especially I think some folks actually got in at 103, which is even better. But what we want to do is just kind of talk about the ranges and um you know discuss what could happen next with this coin. So, we look at the side by side, it's obviously doing better than Bitcoin. Bitcoin's pumping a little bit in the last hour.

[00:20:27]Sue's been pumping for the last 3 hours, right? So when we see that kind of consistency there, uh it's a pretty obvious indication, right? So this is much better than this. Okay. Now, it doesn't mean that, you know, Bitcoin goes down and Sue is just going to go straight up. But it does tell us here that Sue's looking stronger than Bitcoin on the lower time frames here. And that's usually a good sign for continuation. Something you want to generally want to consider investing in.

[00:20:51]Now, unlike other coins, liquidation delta has been long for a few days here, and it's all over the place, but that's actually good. It shows that there's a fight in the battle, but it's mostly bullish and it's a very very positive sign. So overall, that's a good indication here. If we look at the $1 mark to 120, we can see there's a lot of open interest in this range. So that doesn't tell us a heck of a lot. What does tell us a lot more here is that with us being closer to liquidation at 115 to even possibly 135, there's a lot more potential for the price to go higher right now. Uh mainly just with the intention of squeezing out those shorts. And a lot of times, you know, that happens because shorts have to be forced to close their positions and the price shoots up higher. That's generally the concept of how a short squeeze works. So, um, keep in mind shorts often times have a lot of, uh, you know, their stop losses are right there at the liquidation events and generally speaking, that will cause that surge.

[00:21:40]So, I would not be surprised if we do see another push or punch higher here for Sue. Now, am I going to want to take a long right now because of that? Uh, I'm more of a prefer to be like, you know, wait for the the dip and I kind of miss the dip. So, I'm probably going to waited this one out. But, you know, for those of you who like to watch your trades closer, you're more of a scalp trader. Uh, this does seem like a pretty good opportunity for that. Uh, once more, that's just kind of what we're looking at for the lower time frames.

[00:22:05]Daily time frame is not like bullish by any stretch, right? We're still in a really crazy pecurious position here.

[00:22:11]And we can see our previous range lows uh still working as a resistance here.

[00:22:14]So, until we reclaim 135, I think Sue is still going to be kind of in the one, you know, 110 to 120 range. But, uh, let's see how this range holds. Kind of go from there. Either way, let me know what your thoughts are and see. We'd love to hear it. Thanks again for watching. All right, folks. Let's take a look here at XRP and see if XRP has pulled itself out of the doghouse just yet. Again, this is a daily time frame.

[00:22:33]We're at a seven on TD Squa, letting us know we've been moving down for approximately 7 days in a row. Bitcoin's been moving nine days in a row. So, it does show, you know, some strength in XRP as far as its previous pump here.

[00:22:44]But, what's going to cause it to move forward here? Is there going to be a short squeeze? Are we in a position right now where we can, you know, anticipate XRP actually holding the line, right? Is it going to work out?

[00:22:54]So, let's double check that and uh make sure we remove all emotion. Uh it's kind of funny. I had like a a troll from yesterday. I think it was on Facebook.

[00:23:01]It's pretty common for um for trolls to be over there, but uh you know, it was an XRP person, of course, that was like defending the fact that I said the price might go down. It's just hilarious to me that people get so emotionally hellbent on protecting or you know combating their favorite coin that they forget to realize that technical analysis shouldn't have any bias. You're literally just looking at the facts here. So the fact of the matter is side by side with Bitcoin pretty synonymous in the last 12 to 24 hours. So it's not like an amazing situation. XRP is not going to go to the moon because of that.

[00:23:32]But if we look at liquidation that usually does incentivize the price to move in different ways. So, first of all, liquidation delta is super high to the downside. 300 million in the red.

[00:23:41]That's pretty well overextended. I think capitulation makes sense. Pending Bitcoin doesn't go any further down, right? This is all required for Bitcoin to not go straight down from here. Okay.

[00:23:49]And then we take a look at that and we recognize 140 and 145 are areas of open interest. Those are likely the next targets. So, if you're going to consider taking a long, consider taking profits in those open interest ranges. Same thing here as well with liquidation.

[00:24:02]What do you know? 140 just above 140 has a lot of liquidation. people feel safe trading under 140 from now. At least the shorts do. Uh and then 144 to 146 the next concentration. So pretty obvious to me if you're going to consider a long, which may be viable, we are seeing somewhat of a lower time frame double bottom. Bitcoin's establishing higher lows still, uh there's a good chance we do see 145 to 140, that range get hit next for XRP. So I think I think that you know XRP is due to capitulate. due to bounce. But for the most part, you know, from a technical standpoint, there's really not a lot here telling us that it's going to happen. So once more, those are just signs that I like to look for when I consider trades. Am I going to try to short right now into this key level support zone? Definitely not. I mean, you see this previous range here, the price has had a lot of difficulty crossing 135. So I feel like 135 is a pretty solid support for us. Okay, so once more positive there, but most everything else does look fairly negative. I would be cautious and careful, but if you do take a long right now, just put a stop loss, you know, close. So that way if the price continues to run, you can maybe consider getting in at, you know, the low30s.

[00:25:05]Okay? Because once more, 130 to 132 has that that significant area of confluence. That's more of a sport in this local range. Okay? So for now, we got to see if it holds and that's kind of where we go from there. And for the most part, I do want to say thanks again just for being a phenomenal people. Uh, regardless of who you are, where you're at in your life, you take the time to watch and you take the time to learn, it's going to work out in the long run for you. I promise. If you do want to become a better trader, cryptocash.te is a site linked down below for that. I look forward to working with you. Hope you have a great rest of your day. We'll see you in the next one. Take care.