The Bear Flag Secret Everyone Is Missing — Was $82K the Top?

Indexé : 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Hello guys, welcome to the training power. The price of Bitcoin is in the middle of a breakdown and this is all happening right underneath a bullish CME gap form at $79,000 which we are becoming shy every time we are approaching it. In today's video, I'm going to show you the weakness underlying of the price action throughout the full bare flag and how different are all the data points compared to the flag that took us into $98,000. I'm going to reveal data that you're never going to find anywhere else. And I'm sure that it's going to help us navigate this market in a position of advantage, of course. Guys, if you like this type of content, make sure that you're subscribed to the channel. Hit the notification bell to get notified every time I put out one of these videos. 1,000 likes will be fantastic on a Friday. Where is dead silent out there for crypto, not just in YouTube, but also in crypto Twitter. And I think people are throwing the towel.

[00:00:58]And in my opinion, that is an opportunity. Yesterday, I put out also a video on crystal gains and we did a live stream covering all the old coins. So, make sure you are not missing those ones cuz I just came back from holidays and definitely you don't want to be misinformed. I got a new campaign on Bluffing this time. Starting from today up until the 7th of June, you have the opportunity to open an account on Bluffing, get 10% cash back, up to 1,000 in future bonuses, and all these trading goodies depending on the amount of volume that you're trading. The link is in the description, and I'm just starting a trading competition with up to $5 million up for the winners. We're going to do a few comparisons of the previous bare flag with the current bare flag from the point of view of open interest, CBD, net longs, net shorts to understand where are we in the flag. Not just from the point of view of the price action, the candlestick patterns and all of that, which is obviously really important, but we want to be looking with Xray. what is the structure of the regime where we are and are we really accelerating into a puke or if there's something completely different building up under the carpet and you can see that as we approach $98,000 mid January open interest peak against the resistance of open interest built by the previous support and that's something that is very similar to what we have done here on the 5th of May right After that, we got the rejection of the open interest and we have broken down the trend line of support similar to that area in here. I'm just going to magnify it so you can see it better. And what I'm looking for is a breakdown that tries to do a retest and then initiates the actual puke. But what I'm seeing in here are two key differences. Key difference number one is that from the top of the open interest I am not seeing an aggressive wash out of open interest with daily magnitude. This is a 4hour at best possibly a 1hour wash out which is in my opinion not enough to compare apples with apples and pairs with pairs with what happened in this trajectory from mid January into 23rd of January.

[00:03:27]this thing in here has broken down. So that is checking that box, but it's doing it with a way less significant wash out. So that's the first difference. The second one is that we have not taken the previous low. So this the low of 12th of January. In here we have the low of 30 of April and we're still halfway through taking the first low. You could argue that we took this low in there, but that is just too shallow of a low to consider it. What I really want is acceleration, an actual wash out on the four or ideally daily time frame that takes down the level of 23.4.

[00:04:09]The timing is important. The acceleration to the downside tells us a lot of what's really going on. shorts taking control, lungs throwing the towel, lungs exhausted and all of that.

[00:04:23]I'm not saying that that is not going to happen. I'm saying only that that has not yet happened. So the question is what needs to happen first so we get there. And I'm talking like someone that is short. That is because I am currently in a short, right? and I want to become successful in the trade straight away by puking today for example or I want to see if we go with the open interest into 28 billion in case that is necessary before we can actually execute a proper puke. What else I got? Well, today I continue to look into the CME gap that we formed last weekend and you can tell that this move in here seems to be breaking down, right? So that tricked a lot of people cuz I even saw in my own Discord server people saying, "Okay, it seems that we are going to lose $70,000.

[00:05:20]It seems like we're going to completely get destroyed and smash." We even test the breakdown there, but we are back to the point of control. So now price must accelerate, but it's not at least not to the downside, not to the upside either.

[00:05:36]We're just accumulating liquidity on both ends. And I'm going to show you the first thing that you're not able to see because everybody's talking about the CME gap that expands into $79,000 and how sexy it will be to take a short from any low targeting the gap, getting it close and calling it a day for a sculper. But the reality is that we have built in the close proximity short-term liquidity quite heavy on the lower end.

[00:06:06]You can see in here that we have these heels that now remind me that we were in the opposite situation when we were approaching first levels of liquidation that were on the upper end at 76 later on levels of liquidations that were at 80 and then the third levels that we left untouch here expanding now into $85,000.

[00:06:29]So if I zoom out and I look at the shortterm liquidity definitely 85 is in line with the longerterm liquidity of number three but just for the short term and I'm going to leave this hanging there so you see what we are dealing with on the upper end but let's put that outside off screen. So we kick off the normalizing feature here on trading different which has a discount with a link in the description and you can see what we are dealing with. If we move 3.7 $4,000 to the upper end you can see the cumulative barely increases into $81,000. Of course if we go into 85 you have a clear winner. But to go to 85 from where we are, we need really to move $8,000 up. Okay, I'm talking about close proximity, less than 4K. If we go 4K to the downside instead, you can see that the green cumulative increases a lot more sharply than the one to the upper end. Now, if we zoom in even more, and I'm talking about a move of 3K, again, you have a very clear winner. And what's going on at the moment is that a lot of people are betting on the CME gap on $79,000 on the fair value gap that we have right above the price here, the overlapping of the daily with the 4hour which is sexy and it seems like a lowhanging fruit and we are breaking out from a falling wedge which definitely should have targets that include not just the 79 but also the $80,000. So what's going on? I think we should have been able to take the 79, but we are just now struggling due to the excessive longs that are targeting this level.

[00:08:21]Honestly, I'm surprised that we haven't done it yet. Indeed, we have a general market that is actually breaking out on a weekly basis from a bearish ascending wedge in a bullish way. And that is also something that is currently being retested now on the NASDAQ. very overextended. We even have the down Jones bringing in an all-time high as we speak. And remember that my view is that crypto in the bare market can still make a move down with general markets still moving up. Indeed, we started the bare market in 2022 with general markets still rallying while Bitcoin was starting its own bare market. The key distinction in how they react to each other during the bare market, the clear alpha is when general markets make a big move to the downside. Notice big move to the downside. I'm talking about 5 10% any big number for the S&P then that turns out most of the time in general in in in crypto also correcting in a big way and magnifying whatever general markets are doing on the 4hour we are seeing a little bit of bearishness in here right after we had the bullish breakout which was led by this candle and the double bottom breaking out on the next candle we are seeing how we are getting shy with the neckline of the cup and handle. Then I started thinking that maybe it's going to turn into an inverse head and shoulder in here. But no news from that. Instead, we are challenging my level of 77 200 and we continue to hammer that level. We already took the gaps below it. So all imbalances are gone. If we lose 77.2 two that is telling me that what price really wants to do is to lose the previous week in here which is 76.7 I have moved my target of 3169 to $75,000 606 and that is because obviously we cannot fall in here we have to fall with the direction of the RSI into that level speculative speaking 4hour don't get me wrong can definitely fake out this move in here and still go for the CME gap.

[00:10:49]Fridays tend to be the day when we reverse the damage that has happened on Thursday. Thursday are my preferred day for bearish price action and Fridays we tend to have a little bit of a rally at some point. So do not be surprised.

[00:11:06]Somehow we reclaim the support on the 4hour and we still go for the CME gap creating a situation that looks a lot like an inverse head and shoulder. Yes, guys, it is a very 5050 situation today.

[00:11:22]We could give privilege to the short-term liquidity and start tackling levels on the lower end before we go for the CME gap if we ever go. And it's now a matter of what wins. liquidity that is very far versus liquidity below that is closer to the price. And there's another battle. We had the battle also of the weekly time frame which is currently if we were not in a bare market, we will say that is retesting the bull market support band that is retesting the 44 on the weekly RSI. Based on past performance, this is evident that we are going lower. But if we are not and we successfully retesting here with a green engulfing candle again back above 82, everybody's going to say it was obvious that we were retesting. We are still in a virgin month from 755 into $75,000 sorry into 72,524.

[00:12:21]We have the pivots of May which we clearly haven't touched yet and that is something that happens 99% of every month. Looking at the daily time frame, nothing has been discarded. Neither the downside, neither the upside. We are still two days holding that support.

[00:12:40]Now, building a red candle that is just a swing that could easily still achieve the 79500. As you can see on the daily, it can also easily be the point of the rejection and lose the support. There is no alpha right there. And because for scalping purposes, for are we going up?

[00:12:58]Are we going down? In short term, there is no clear winner. We are in a very 5050 situation. We are in a typical trap of liquidity on both ends. I'm going to divert your attention to something more important, which is understanding where we are in the bare flag. So, I'm going to increase the time frame on Market Monkey Terminal to the daily. And I'm going to show you some fantastic data.

[00:13:26]We're going to compare the two bare flags from multiple point of views, at least two or three. I promise you that what you're going to hear in here is absolutely virgin information. So, we have one bare flag that moving to $98,000 that reach also $95,000. And I'm trying you to see these two points because these two pivots to the upside are critical to understand what happened with CVD at those points. what happens with net longs, net shorts, open interest. And then we can extrapolate what happens with these two highs in here, the high of 78 and the high of almost 83 just to simplify it. If we look now at the CVD specifically focusing on everything that is futures excluding intentionally spot, you can see that at 95 on the 6th of January, we reach a high of CBD on futures. That means that aggressive buyers with market orders were peing. Then we peak again an ETA with a higher high. Then we had the full wash out going down into $59,000 where was pretty much dominated again by shorting aggressive sellers. And where are we in here? If we just focus on futures, you can see that we are at the same CVD reading as we were at $98,000.

[00:14:56]So what are you trying to tell me that we are just about to go down? Not so quick. We are at the same level. Hold on that thought there. Notice this big depression in here and how we come back to the same level. Are you there? Okay, let's go now into spot and I'm going to show you the peak of the 5th of January 96 $95,000 and then the 98 on spot. That is the high of spot. What do you notice that with this full wash out in here from the alltime high into 80,000 spot barely follow up right we increase from bottom to top what 2.8% 8% of CBD that is absolutely nothing whereas futures did a much more magnificent move if you remember from the previous chart. Now in the current bare flag spot has moved almost 7%. So compared to the 2 something% it has brought in more spot.

[00:16:01]Okay. But the amount of spot that we are getting in here, it is definitely not as much as what we did in futures. In futures, we have done all of that. What does it mean? Well, we got two things.

[00:16:16]We had more spot. So, people on Twitter saying, "Yeah, now we have more spot."

[00:16:20]Yeah, there is more spot. Sure. More sport than here? Sure. More than the previous bare flag, right? Enough? I don't know. I don't think so. This is a fraction of how much futures has been supporting the move up. So clearly we still have a futures dominated move to the upside in the bare flag. Futures dominated move up tend to suffer from one thing which is at some point people take profits because they don't want to keep paying indefinitely funding fees.

[00:16:54]They want to take the profits and generally speaking people that enter in futures is because they have a target.

[00:17:00]They want to take some profits and run away. Whereas spot is seen as more structural demand that holds the price in place. It's like the backbone of the flag itself. In a way, I will say that this time one/ird is spot, but 2/3 or more is led by futures. Better than the previous bare flag. I'll give you that.

[00:17:26]But enough. I don't know yet. It doesn't look like it. Now, let's analyze as well what happened with net longs and net shorts in the two bare flags. That is going to blow your mind. So in the previous bare flag, we peak with the longs at $95,000.

[00:17:46]At $98,000, we have less longs at the peak. What does it mean? It means that we form a bearish divergence. Price put a higher high, but there were less longs being part of that. And you're probably thinking, well, it depends who's thinking, but you're probably thinking that that doesn't make any sense. That Market Monkey Terminal, even if it's offering a 15% discount, they're probably wrong. Yes, the link is in the description, but that is just a bearish divergence and it means that something else propelled the price into higher high. And I'm going to give you three seconds to tell me what you think it is.

[00:18:30]It was shorts being put out of their misery, kicked out of their short so the price can actually puke in peace with less shorts. How you know that? Well, longs did not achieve the higher high in here. Whereas the shorts were increasing dramatically. Open interest was still building up up until 28th of January up until the moment where the actual puke starts. That is the moment where the ratio between longs and shorts as you can see in here you got a lot more shorts and less longs compared to 95 and something flicks if that worth exists and we start with the puke to the downside. So now that I have your attention now that you understand what happening in that bare flag and how clear as water the setup was. We're going to try to project that into what's currently going on and see if we are in a similar situation and if it's not, which is obviously not, what is the main difference and is that difference going to allow still the price to go down or not? Let's see if we can answer some of those questions today. We can clearly see again that futures went up on CBD to the same level of 98 spot that has not followed through. longs went to higher highs relative to the amount of longs that you have at 95 which was the highest level of longs during that bare flag. So yes, we are lowering in the price and longs are going up in here.

[00:20:07]Two levels of minus 10 versus this high that was minus3 which is in negative scale. So therefore is higher on the net longs versus net shorts. We can see the opposite situation. And the longs are becoming very overpop populated in here and they are far away from producing a breakdown like this. Whereas the shorts have been smashed and they seem to be retesting the trend line for a move to the downside. Open interest is at the highs or at support we could say but still holding this trend line. It is not accelerating to the upside like right before the puke. It has already done something like this, but the resolution has been so far the opposite. Shorts being taken off their positions and longs coming even bigger. So you got on one hand at the moment a setup where you have very overpop populated amount of lungs which in a way is not great. We certainly don't have the same equation that trigger the puke of the previous bare flag. We may have a completely different scenario that still pukes because you have an overpop populated situation of longs because you have an excessive amount of CVD coming from futures aggressive buyers but spot is currently leaving potentially leading into a new lower low. We don't know yet but at least so far that is the case.

[00:21:41]Again, I insist. All this information is telling me that we should not be expecting the same time of resolution.

[00:21:49]The same even if we go and we go to 60K now or we go to $44,000 now, we do not have the same setup. So that journey whether it's to the downside or to the upside is going to do very different things and it's already doing very different things than the previous puke. We have funding rates in the positive at the moment that supports the idea of shorts being liquidated. We have a huge selling wall that persisting here but is declining at the moment.

[00:22:20]Spot is starting to build a selling wall at the moment as you can see in here. So green and orange are the bit ask ratio of 0 to 5% deviation and blue red is specifically futures perpetuals. Delta is slightly putting the longs at higher risk, but just 22k. So, I will say it's just flat. Purple Wells defended all the rally into the double top of 82 in here.

[00:22:46]They were still trading primarily long up until the second time we go into 82,000. At that point, they rack pull and you can see that the blue line is above the purple line all the way after the second time that we visit 82. And that shows you that they are primarily transitioning to aggressive selling whereas the rest the average of all the different sizes of positions were longing more than them. Now that has done a bullish cross. So purple from $76,000 has transitioned to being longing more than the rest. Okay, not longing a lot because it's still at 40 percentile, not at 100 percentile like it used to be, but they are longing a little bit more than the rest. Now, small positions, as you can see in there, the ones that are trading with $100 to 1K are going crazy longing more than purple. So again, there is a lot of data today, but there is really for scalpers a 5050 situation.

[00:23:53]is very clear that the best option here is to skip the scalping trade. My personal setup, which is not a scalp, obviously I've been building my short for quite a long time now. The plan remains exactly the same. $86,000 is still my sweet spot to add more to my short. I'm looking forward to get to those levels to build a bigger position.

[00:24:17]But if we don't go to those levels and we don't hit number three, I am happy to take profits on the way down as we liquidate levels on 70,000 and hopefully 60,000s. Remember to hit the like, subscribe, write down a comment down below. That really helps. Let me know in the comments if you want to see a Sunday alpha intense video and what would you like me to include in that video as well. And I'll see you in the next one.

[00:24:43]Have a great weekend. I'll see you next time. Bye-bye.