The Most Pivotal Point For BTC's Next Move. (It's Critical) #btc #trading #markets

Indexé : 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]What's going on guys? It's Trout, and uh it's been a bit, but we are back now.

[00:00:04]Back from from just being away and and and doing some stuff. I don't know if you guys have been keeping up on Twitter, but I was not I was not here, and I've been I've been on the go doing a lot. Um all good though. Good good things. But uh I want to talk about some stuff real quick here um about Bitcoin.

[00:00:20]So, uh since our last update, I don't remember where we were, but we were probably somewhere back here. Uh it's it's been a couple it's been one or two.

[00:00:29]And uh yeah. So, I want to talk about just a couple things here. Um I've kind of changed my styles and and uh indicators and just color schemes and stuff, so it should be just a lot cleaner in general to to read. Anyways, um what I want to talk about here is we're coming into a big pivot. So, we had this nice sweep here of of about 82 83,000, right? And what was up there?

[00:00:52]That was um our all-time high VWAP as well as the 200-day moving average, right?

[00:01:00]This is pretty common. Um if we look at this in historical cycles, this is a very good bear market resistance indicator. Um so, just something to think about.

[00:01:11]Um but it was pretty clean rejection off of there. Like that it doesn't get much cleaner than that. That was basically bang on. Okay? So, regardless how you look at it, 200-day all-time high VWAP, it's very similar setup. Um but we're in a pivotable range, okay? So, we have our monthly VWAP here anchored from May 1st, right? We have broken under it, and we're slowly starting to accept back into the uh quarterly value.

[00:01:36]You're at a pivot here because there is that standard deviation that was sitting around 78 uh what was that I tweeted on Twitter? I think it was I think it was 78.6.

[00:01:45]And you're now under that, and we're we're we're failing to break out of it, right? So, this comes this becomes interesting to me because reclaiming 80,000, right?

[00:01:54]Like if we go 80,000, right? Reclaiming that, that would be bullish if you can do something like this and up, right? And then you reclaim that monthly value as well and and continue the grind higher.

[00:02:07]But, there's a few weird things that I've caught that I want to point out. So, we're going to start with TPO here and we're going to start with this right here. This big big big TPO right here.

[00:02:19]This is a 10-day composite.

[00:02:21]Okay?

[00:02:23]So, we did one test, two test, three test, fourth failed attempt, breakdown, right?

[00:02:31]Swept the value area low.

[00:02:34]I basically came into the the previous month value area high, trying to bounce off of it.

[00:02:39]And then infer a I guess that we'd call this a fifth retest failure of breaking above that 81.6 value. And then just a complete sell-off coming into the low of about 76,000. Okay? This gets interesting to me because failing to break out of a huge multi-day composite like this, especially on a run-up, I mean, that's one thing. Like that's one thing itself, but I mean, when we think of, you know, historical 200-day moving average, all-time high value area low, whatever, and 80K's itself, like if we think about 80K this entire cycle, I mean, one, there's no resistance through it on the way up the first time.

[00:03:19]Two, there was no support in it second time. The support was in the 70s.

[00:03:23]Three, on the way back up again, there was nothing through 80K.

[00:03:26]Four, the way back down, there was nothing through 80K. Five, there was a failed breakout and hold of it again and then uh six, another breakdown all the way through it again. The 80 the 80s have not really been a very good structural point of value to me this entire cycle. And I think that's that's mixy because we should theoretically, if Bitcoin's going to actually bottom in October and the cycle's just going to be what it's always been, if this was to be a super cycle, why would we not have just gone through that while the SPX was ripping to new highs, right?

[00:03:59]Like think of think of it that way.

[00:04:01]But also think what's interesting is if you see this 7500 block here, 7517, which is when SPX topped out. Uh I I put this on Twitter the other day, but that was a huge spot of of interest to me and a couple of other people. I was like, "Okay, my my target was 7475." So it was a little early, but it regardless.

[00:04:18]I was thinking just real quick about skew as well that everyone is slammed to the upside only, no downside protection, and we're starting to stall potentially.

[00:04:25]Which if you unwind that, dealers just have to buy back a ton of shorts and short inventory, and then it's the downside just accelerates. Now, I'm not saying that has to happen right now, but it's just going into quarterly expiration next month, and you usually get that kind of summer weakness.

[00:04:41]And then we have bonds Chris Chris being weird. I It's just something to keep an eye on.

[00:04:46]But this is interesting to me for Bitcoin because another thing I wanted to look at was the Bitfinex long rate has started twapping very hard again.

[00:04:58]And they never took any profits on this entire run-up from 60k all the way to 83k. That that that's a $23,000 move, and now they're twapping harder again. And we all know how this works, right? We We've all discussed this.

[00:05:14]They only build longs when they want the market to pull back, right? And that's That's a hefty extra bit here. And I tweeted the other day that the twap was was on below 77k.

[00:05:27]I think someone knows something, personally.

[00:05:30]Um I I think your your biggest tell on this being a false rally was the Bitfinex not taking any profits, stuff like that, and another twap on the downside again. And And And Bitcoin hasn't budged. Seems like the Clarity Act, there's no real hype around it.

[00:05:44]You You there's a couple assets like Zcash and and hyped that have been doing well. They're on a bit of a squeeze, which is fine. I mean, there's some good news about about hype. Zcash only really sends when BTC sends. I don't know. So, I don't really have any narratives to throw at those, but I'm just thinking for the king in general, the one that moves the market the most, um something's up.

[00:06:05]So, for trade setups right now, if you're not already short from above, I think you watch to see if there's a failed reclaim of this. The previous month's value area high, the two-week value area low. This general range is is interesting to me.

[00:06:20]And the reason I say that is is Oh, pardon me, wrong chart.

[00:06:26]Is Sorry.

[00:06:30]The reason I say that is you have the the monthly up here as well. It's right about 79572.

[00:06:35]So, if we think about that, right in this general vicinity, this is interesting to see if we get a failed uh break back above into 80K, and we just kind of you know, kind of like this, just loop and fall back down, or reject cleanly, kind of how this is already drawn out.

[00:06:50]But, you understand what I'm saying is this general uh this general box is an interesting piece of value to me.

[00:07:04]If if if we break back above to 80K, and we start closing above, I actually think that's bullish, and the market's going to go a lot higher.

[00:07:11]But, we're we're bouncing off very critical points and failing to hold and reclaim. If this doesn't even make an attempt, and we just go like this, into the previous month's point of control, and just nuke off, which we've rejected once and like we're going to have to do it twice. If we just do this and go down, I'll be honest, I I I seriously think you're going to the range lows. Like, I think you're at least going down to 68 at least, if not further, for the next leg down. Which would make sense. Kind of you you'd get weakness June capitulation into let's see so you'd go June you go June July August >> [snorts] >> August or September would probably be another top for the next leg lower in October.

[00:07:55]Like a lower high.

[00:07:56]Um So you're just in a weird pivot point right now and this is just something I wanted to just make a a solo video about because I just think it's it's it's really important.

[00:08:05]Um we'll talk more about the SPX and and my views on that, you know, on on the weekend or whatever, but I just wanted to make a quick like 10-minute update on kind of just how I felt. I think for now if you're trying to do a scalp long you just make sure that you you close out of this previous DPO and you keep trying to grind into this value like I explained.

[00:08:23]But um I think this single print being filled and a test of 80K to break out or not I or as a a reclamation point that's important to me, okay? So that's my current views. The next two is you know, we have this this equity we can knock out here at just about 78K which would probably honestly push us higher into that that liquidation zone like I was talking about which again there's another one in that general vicinity.

[00:08:49]Um but we had like some huge like some huge longs and and step in here and step up and it held price up and then we have quite a bit asks above that have been piling in as well.

[00:09:01]With looks like some temporary support here around 77. So it's interesting there's a lot of bids here at 77 or at at 73 that were in and seem to have been removed.

[00:09:12]And then there's a couple fat ones down at they're not even fat really, they're just hanging out they're all kind of 70 and 68. I don't know.

[00:09:23]But I think it's weird that we're kind of seeing a lot more of of the stack above start to come in with definitely some some support below. It's just weird that so much of this is starting to step in I find after we've already sold so low which kind of makes me think that the the trend might shift.

[00:09:41]I don't know. There's some weird stuff going on, that's for sure. But, this is definitely something I just want to keep an eye on and what potentially um is the worst yet to come for the next leg down. I I I just don't know. You know, the trend's been definitely bullish for a bit here, and even I flipped kind of bullish for a bit just just looking at things. But, um I don't know. I look at this and I think of how we're trading here, and uh I don't know.

[00:10:11]It just It makes you wonder, you know, it makes you wonder what's what's next.

[00:10:15]But, I think that Bitfinex long twap that's uh it's a little little sus to me. It's a little sus to me. You have Kevin Walsh coming in on on Friday.

[00:10:25]Uh you're going to have to see how markets react to that, and then going into June op ex for the quarterly.

[00:10:30]So, that's my thoughts and views. I hope this uh helped you guys and give you just some insight to kind of how I'm I'm thinking things right now. But, uh yeah, take care.