BITCOIN BREAKS $80,000! The Next Stop is $100K? - Matt Hougan

インデックス作成: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]I think there's an underlying tremendously bullish market here that we keep messing up. Right? We are reinventing money, we're reinventing intelligence, we're reinventing health, we're reinventing in defense, we're moving into space. These are the biggest markets I've ever seen entrepreneurs and innovators go after in my lifetime. The hot ball of money that used to rotate into various parts of crypto is no longer rotating. What's lifting crypto is a slow drip of institutional money. That means I think we're going to have longer cycles, they're going to be slower moving, less volatile. So, I don't think it's had no impact, but they can all eventually rise over time, which is I think what will happen. I just think the uptrend is big enough that it can't keep us down completely. What if I told you the crypto market may have already hit bottom, but the real explosion hasn't even started yet? Bitcoin holding strong, institutions quietly piling in, and trillion-dollar trends colliding all at once. But, here's the catch. This next rally, it's not guaranteed. So, the big question is, are we truly entering a sustained bull market or just another temporary bounce? Let's break down what top analyst Matt Hougan is really seeing beneath the surface and why the next move could define the entire cycle.

[00:01:18]Please take a little time to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more videos like this. You can also check out our other videos on cryptocurrencies and the overall digital asset space, and drop your comments and observations in the comment section below. Everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the channel's growth. [music] Thanks, and enjoy the video. Is this a sustained rally here? Are we Did we finally Did we actually bottom when we say we did, or what's What What do you How do you How do you interpret this?

[00:01:51]What I'd say is if we hold here, it's good, but don't get too excited, LJ.

[00:01:55]You're just saying what I said. You can't say what I said, Ben.

[00:01:58]>> [laughter] >> No, I think look I think that's right.

[00:02:00]Look I I think a couple things are true.

[00:02:02]Um one I think we can have relatively high confidence that $60,000 was a really fundamental bottom. We seem to have sustainably pushed beyond that without too much hype getting into the market.

[00:02:14]And [music] we've talked about it here before. I think we're in this general channel between 60 and 80.

[00:02:20]>> [music] >> The question is do we push above 80 into through the next channel or do we retreat back and try into the 70s? The answer I think lies in what happens to risk assets in general and then what's happens with the Clarity Act in particular. I think we see the Clarity Act continue the recent trend where it's been looking more and more likely. Mhm.

[00:02:42]And we [clears throat] see risk assets at least hold steady, [music] then I think we could move into the next sort of 80 to 100 channel. If we see risk assets get crushed cuz maybe things in Iran turn for the worse or we see the Clarity Act hopes fade and we go back below like 50 to 40% odds, then it feels to me like we'll we'll head back into the into the trenches.

[00:03:07]But I do think that $60,000 was the um was the end of winter.

[00:03:12]And I think we probably go higher from here. I just don't know. I think it's conditional on those two events, whether it's straight up or whether we reset and gather a little bit more base. I think there's an underlying tremendously bullish market here that we keep messing up.

[00:03:27]>> [music] >> Right? We are reinventing money, we're reinventing intelligence, we're reinventing health, we're reinventing in defense. [music] Uh we're moving into space. These are the biggest markets I've ever seen entrepreneurs and innovators go after in my lifetime. Right? We all got excited about the internet. That was reinventing media. Who cares? Right? This is intelligence, work, money, space, and life. These are much bigger markets. Who cares? Snapchat, like we got excited about Snapchat, you have to be kidding me. Right? So, now we're going after these much bigger markets. I think the market would just be doing even better.

[00:04:04]It's just people keep mucking it up. And I think the reason why we more or less {quote} ignore >> [music] >> uh the nonsense is because the underlying thrum otherwise would be just so bullish. So, I think it is slowing us down. I just think the uptrend is big enough that it can't keep us down completely. First, you can like more than one thing at once.

[00:04:25]Like when you sit down to have dinner, it's okay to like the appetizer and the main and the dessert and have a nice glass of wine and some sparkling water and to love it all. That's all fine.

[00:04:34]Just cuz I'm excited about AI doesn't mean I'm any less excited about crypto.

[00:04:39]And then as any investor knows, these things go in seasons, [music] right?

[00:04:43]This outperforms and then that outperforms and then the other thing outperforms. If you can time it, if you don't think you're late to buying SanDisk, then God bless you. Just do that. Just buy the specific thing that's going to go up the most tomorrow and then tomorrow rotate to the next thing.

[00:05:01]But, I'm not good enough to do that. So, my approach is just to own all the awesome things and let those rising tides move at different time periods. I think the thing that we forget because intelligence is such a big market and AI is such a big market is that money really is a very large market, too. Right? The little world that we're reinventing in crypto, which is money and finance, is one of the largest addressable markets in the world. [music] And uh we're going to disrupt that in the same way that AI is disrupting sort of intelligence and robots will disrupt part of work. And again, it's it's totally fine to be excited about all of them. I do think it's taken some of the ebullience out of the crypto market because the hot money, the hot ball of money that used to rotate [music] into various parts of crypto is no longer rotating. What's lifting crypto is a slow drip of institutional money. That means I think we're going to have longer cycles. They're going to be slower moving, less volatile. So, I don't think it's had no impact, but they can all eventually rise over time, which is I think what will happen. How much the Overton window has shipped has changed [music] over the last year. I remember, you know, for the first 6 years of Bitwise, we were like struggling to talk to people about a 1% allocation to Bitcoin. Remember the whole get off zero concept? 1% of your portfolio, if you lose it, you're only down 1%. That was like 6 years of repeating this story.

[00:06:31]And then Charles Schwab comes out with a video that says 2 to 7%, which 7% is above what Bitwise has historically said for most people, which is which is 1 to 5% [music] and that has just changed uh the conversation at these conferences that I go to. Like some combination of that and what Morgan Stanley is doing and what Wells Fargo is doing, Goldman Sachs is doing. Like there's just it's been normalized so much that we've completely shifted from this like, well, maybe this crazy thing for 1% to like, ah, why don't we put 5% of our portfolio in it and just shrugging our shoulders.

[00:07:09]It's it's really remarkable to me how [music] much it's changed. And that's let it makes it way less of a risk asset, doesn't it? It completely does and it completely is. Um and it's just really remarkable like sometimes we forget it cuz we've been down in the in the in sort of the doldrums of the 60 to 80 channel, but it is really dramatically changed, right? It's it's become completely normalized >> [music] >> and we've just become almost immune to that. Uh which which when I go out on the road just really strikes me how much more welcoming people are >> [music] >> and the the the size of the allocation that they're considering has really stuck with me. This thing about stablecoins, which is they're $300 billion today and everyone's like, "They'll get to $3 trillion and we'll be using stablecoins instead of our Visa card." But no one ever explains how we go from D gens trading with stablecoins [music] to them, my grandmother using it instead of her Visa card, right? We don't talk about that bridge. And we have these two pieces of news that I think gave me a view. Um one was that DoorDash talked about paying uh its dashers via stablecoins on the Temple blockchain. Right? And the other was that Meta said it was going to start paying creators in two countries, eventually 160 countries, using USDC on Polygon and Solana. And what I love about these is it points out exactly how we get to the mainstream, >> [music] >> which is we start with the edge cases.

[00:08:31]If you think about DoorDash's business, they have these employees that come and go over short periods of time in like 40 countries around the world where they have very tangential relationships with them. They're not onboarding them with a month-long onboarding process and paperwork the way we do when we hire someone. They're like gig workers, right? How do you pay a globally distributed group of gig workers in a quick way? Well, stablecoins make that push-button easy. Same thing with content creators, right? Globally distributed, how do you pay them in a quick, easy button way? Stablecoins are a nice solution. So, of course, that's how it starts. But then you can imagine having millions of people who get used to stablecoins in this venue. And that's how we start to get into the mainstream.

[00:09:16]So, I just you know, those are such big brands rolling these things out. And uh we used to have a few of these stories.

[00:09:24]We [music] used to have Starlink sort of paying some people in stablecoins. But now we're starting to see like multiple of these stories each week. And it just has painted a road that I could draw to the end point where stablecoins are as normal as debit cards. And uh I really I really like those two stories. Now let's talk about one of the most overlooked catalysts, stable coins. Today they're mostly used by traders, but Hougan highlights something critical. We're finally seeing a real path to mainstream adoption. How? Through real-world use cases, companies paying global workers instantly, platforms paying creators across borders, gig economy integration.

[00:10:03]This is how adoption happens. Not overnight, but through practical entry points. And once people start using stable coins, they're just one step away from DeFi. That's where things get interesting, because suddenly users can earn yield, lend assets, participate in decentralized finance. This creates a gateway effect, bringing millions into the broader crypto ecosystem.

[00:10:26]I would buy Circle. I think in some sense it is that simple. All right, they're going to use this, Circle benefits from it.

[00:10:34]We can >> [music] >> we can sort of uh take the easy approach and just buy Circle. I think that's >> [music] >> The next thing I would buy is like DeFi or Bitcoin, cuz the thing about stable coins is they put you one jump away from the rest of crypto.

[00:10:47]Once you have stable coins, your probability of using DeFi, I think probably goes up a hundred millionfold.

[00:10:54]And so I would look at even some of the isolated, unloved DeFi protocols out there that are trading at really low valuations and find those attractive in a world where there are a hundred million or a billion stable coin users.

[00:11:08]Um I don't know if Ryan has it. I mean the other obvious answer is like buy Solana or buy Polygon, right? Those are direct beneficiaries, but I think you [music] can you can go one step further into into DeFi. Right. So hope that a lot of those people that are going to eventually be using stable coins and putting more of their money on chain will then be like, well, what else can I do with this money now that I have it on chain? And be like, well, look at this amazing DeFi infrastructure that exists here that has that has been developed for years. Yeah, hey, did you know you could earn yield on your stablecoin? Right.

[00:11:39]Yeah. That is different from hey, you should buy some stablecoins >> [music] >> and then earn yield on them. And you're like, I'll just put it in the bank. But if you're getting [music] paid stablecoins and you're like, you can instantaneously earn earn yield on them, then all of a sudden you're in uh Morpheus or you're in Ave or you're you're like you're in a DeFi protocol, right? Uh you're in a vault. So I I think that's what I mean when I say like [music] this is this is a huge push for the DeFi ecosystem is it just brings you so much closer to taking that step and they're all going to be marketed to and maybe even DeFi protocols will market through Meta to get to the people that it's paying. Like it's very easy to see how that ecosystem uh blows out from there. So that's that's how I would approach it as an investor if I had a long-term time horizon. I do think we'll get through it either way, but it will be a short-term setback if it doesn't uh resolve positively. The other thing that would really help, which I haven't mentioned, is the DeFi hack thing chilling out for a little while. Be nice to have a a stretch of solidity there.

[00:12:40]See Ave fully unlock and rebound. I think that would be very helpful to the community and uh and the reverse would be uh a significant setback. So that's that's another thing that's on my radar. Is that AI based, right? Cuz there's seen those I've seen that chart.

[00:12:54]You guys probably seen it too that it's like crypto hacks in the last like couple months is way beyond anything it's ever been. And that there's a natural correl- you know, it's not direct but like Anthropic is teasing Mythos like the or Mythos or whatever you call it and then there's you know, there's the idea that AI is going to massively enable hackers. Although some of them were social engineering, right?

[00:13:12]Like some of them were like a 6-months long con, right? So it's not exactly AI based but Yeah, it's a long con. I actually don't so I don't know, but I think the the panic around Mythos and AI based the cyber hacking and the coincident timing of some of these hacks means we're taking them more aggressively than we would have otherwise. Like if we had had uh one of these hacks or even even even both of the major hacks a year ago pre-Mythos, [music] I think people would have been like, "Ah, man, another one.

[00:13:45]That's brutal." But because they're happening in tandem, I think we're heightened um we're we're more concerned about it than we otherwise would. So maybe that's the third piece we need to really get this sustained rally. We need uh risk-on assets to do okay, we need clarity, and we need >> [music] >> not another series of major multi-hundred-million-dollar hacks.

[00:14:05]Yeah, that would be helpful.

[00:14:07]I think if we get those three things, we're maybe off to the races. All of these mega trends and incredible innovations build on each other. Like you can't advance space exploration without the the the the AI boom that we're seeing. And you can't reinvent internet money if there's not a a world that is demanding that. And we're seeing that across agentic AI, and there's going to be a need for I can't believe I'm going to say these words, but intergalactic commerce. If we are exploring space, like all of these things are building on top of each other. And so I think when you zoom out and you say, "Here are the things that are going wrong short-term. Here are the massive things that we're tackling long-term." Those are what out the out the long-term items outweigh the short-term headwinds. And I think that's why investors maybe hit a speed bump, pull back a little bit, they zoom out and they say, "Oh wait, we're headed in the right direction. I need to be exposed to this [music] market, whether it's crypto, AI, healthcare, energy, space." And then they come back in full steam ahead, because this choppiness short-term will settle out. We're approaching midterms, in a couple more years we'll have uh you know, a new administration, but these long-term mega trends will still be driving markets higher at that point in time. You don't want to be sidelined for that, whether it's crypto, AI, or any other sector.

[00:15:23]>> Think about the people that are controlling the mass amount of capital that has not yet allocated to crypto.

[00:15:30]This They're relatively slow-moving, and so I They're eventually going to get They're just like they're eventually going to have exposure to AI and space, but crypto takes them a little bit longer because they have this preconceived bias they don't already have against other sectors. But, I know from spending time on the road at conferences, meeting with big allocators. I was just at a conference this past week in New Orleans called Alpha on the Delta. Incredible name for a conference. This is [music] with large institutional allocators, endowments, pensions, family offices, multi-family offices. These firms are very interested in crypto, and to Matt's point, they're also very interested in AI, and they're also very interested in biotech. But, one thing that they strongly believe in is having diversified exposure across these different sectors. And so, while [music] they are excited about those other new fields that maybe are stealing attention away from crypto, they're also focusing on their getting up to speed in crypto and doing due diligence and understanding how should I allocate, which one should I allocate to, how do I invest in stable coins, or tokenization, or should I buy Bitcoin?

[00:16:39]Those are questions that they're continuing to ask, and that's the slow drip that Matt's talking about. It's going to happen. It just takes time. You want to be on the right side of the equation when it happens. Yeah, so so been on the road for the past 4 weeks straight at a number of different conferences with different audiences, and there's been three trends that I've observed over this period.

[00:17:01]The first is that wealth managers love indexes. And the reason I bring that up is exactly what you were just talking about, LG.

[00:17:07]That the the attention that they have the attention span they have for crypto or different asset classes is limited.

[00:17:13]They're at these conferences, and while they're meeting with Bitwise for a half hour, they're also meeting with 15 other firms over a two-day period and trying to attend panels and trying to answer their Slack and email. And so what they love and what we're seeing increasing demand for is just broad-based passive exposure to crypto. They can tell their clients like, "Hey, you're exposed to it and yes, you own Bitcoin. Yes, you own Ethereum. Yes, you own Solana or XRP if the client asks for those [music] things." And you can sleep well at night knowing that you have that exposure and financial advisors wealth managers can say, "Yes, it's not my job." So demand for indexing and passive exposure to crypto is one trend.

[00:17:51]Cool.

[00:17:51]>> Another trend is for income on idle crypto assets.

[00:17:54]>> [music] >> We're seeing an increasing amount of Bitcoin whales or Ethereum whales or crypto asset, you know, XYZ whales who want to put their holdings to work and they want yield, whether that's through staking or through generating out you know, yield through options strategies or a combination of the two things. And so we're seeing increasing demand for that. You can think of family offices or multi-family offices that have that their anchor is a multi is a Bitcoin whale. And that Bitcoin whale is long for the next 10 to 20 years. Doesn't plan to sell, but wants to put that capital to work. And so they come to us and say, "What can you guys do at Bitwise to help us generate yield on this Bitcoin [music] Bitcoin?" And they do the same thing for Ethereum, XRP, and other crypto assets. So indexing is one trend, yield is another trend. I'll tell you the third trend is they're just asking for a crypto market update. And the questions that they're asking show that they don't spend a lot of time paying attention to crypto. They're like, "Oh yeah, isn't [music] there some piece of legislation that is like getting attention from banks or something like that?" Or "Oh yeah, when did did they launch Solana ETFs yet?"

[00:19:03]Right? Like they ask these questions and you just realize that we focus on this each and every day, 24/7 365. We've talked about clarity so many times this year. We look at the poly market every single day. They don't even know the name of the act. They just saw some headline about the the banking lobbies fighting crypto legislation. And they just want to know what's happening, how do I think about it, and what does it mean for the long term? [music] And so those are the trends that we're seeing, and to me those are all three headed in the right direction. Six months ago, we weren't seeing these kinds of trends. They were really focused on, oh, didn't crypto just like wipe out and just like go isn't it headed towards zero? Now they're actually interested in how do I think about it? How do I put my assets to work? How should I allocate? What's your thesis to the end of this year and and over the long term? So, how are sophisticated investors approaching this?

[00:19:50]Hougan outlines a simple philosophy.

[00:19:53]Don't try to time everything. Own the big trends. Instead of chasing the next hot asset, institutions are diversifying across crypto, AI, and other sectors using index-style exposure seeking yield on existing holdings. Three key trends he's seeing. Demand for passive crypto exposure indexes, interest in generating yield on crypto assets, growing curiosity, not skepticism about the market. That last one is crucial. The conversation has shifted from is crypto dead to how should I invest in it?

[00:20:23]That's a massive change. Here's the bottom line. Short-term, uncertain.

[00:20:28]Long-term, extremely bullish. Why?

[00:20:30]Because the biggest pools of capital in the world are still under exposed and they're coming, but slowly. That's the opportunity.