I Tested Topps Chrome Pack Odds... They Might Be Wrong

Indexed: 2026-05-18

[00:00:00]Have you ever wondered if we can actually trust the pack odds put out by Topps? Well, today we're going to dig into that by opening up 50 packs of Topps Chrome. And we're going to be comparing the exact cards that we pull out of the packs versus the cards that Topps says we should pull out of the packs. We're keeping track of literally everything on the screen, so we'll get an exact answer at the end. So, I'm going to pop up on the screen some different refractors that we're going to be keeping track of the pack odds for.

[00:00:24]Um, we're only going to be keeping track of a few because it would get very, very confusing cuz there is tons of pack odds and uh different parallels. So, what we're going to do is we're going to do just the base versions of these parallels, not counting the rookies. So, we've got the base refractor. You guys will see all of them on the screen though. Uh, but base refractor is one in every four packs. Um, so we should theoretically get 12.5 uh base refractors. And then we've got base raywave, which is one in five. So, we should get theoretically 10 of the base raywaves. Um, and then all of these other ones, you got the red, white, and blue, the leather, and then the pulsar.

[00:01:03]Those are all one in 10 packs. So, we should get five of those in all 50 of these packs. So, there's a Tyler Warren.

[00:01:12]Since this is a rookie, which we're not counting the rookies, if I did that, it would be, you know, way too confusing, way too many numbers on the screen. So, this one does not count. Um, but we are basically going to be keeping track of all of that on the screen. I'll probably start with the number that we're supposed to get. And then once we get them, I will, you know, count it down.

[00:01:31]So, there's our first raywave. So, that uh counter is going to go down. And then there's a Jackson Dart. So, that's pretty nice. I'll put all the cards that we have counted on the screen over there to the left. Now, I know, you know, pack odds can be very, very confusing, especially if you are, you know, first starting out, which there is a refractor. I need to remember that we're counting this stuff. Um, but a way that I like to think about it is um think of like a million packs on a conveyor belt.

[00:02:01]And you know, when you open up a pack, you're basically picking from one of those because like I opened up what it was 200 blaster boxes and we pulled a super factor. So that was definitely not enough packs according to the odds to be able to pull a super factor. Which there's a Tyler Shuck red, white, and blue that is nice.

[00:02:24]That one is a rookie, so it's not going to count on the screen, but I've always been curious, you know, if the odds are actually correct. So hopefully we'll get a good representation of that today.

[00:02:34]There's a leather. So we've already pulled a leather and a ray wave. So actually the leather and the red, white, and blue base and the pulsar base is going to be the hardest to hit out of all of these. And do I see gold? Okay, we have gold for the Chiefs. It is a rookie. A Chiefs rookie gold auto. I mean, if this is I think Jaylen Royals would be the best one that you can get.

[00:03:01]And it is going to be Jeffrey Bassa.

[00:03:05]That is five out of 50 and then there's our first pulsar. So Max Crosby pulsar.

[00:03:10]So this, if you looked on the odds, I'm sure this is like one in a thousand packs, probably more than that. But you know, we hit it out of what like 10 packs, something like that. So it is kind of hard to think about pack odds sometimes. Which there's a Jake Bates.

[00:03:31]That is our second ray wave. So we just need eight more ray waves until we've completed that.

[00:03:39]Here's another one. That's going to be Kamren Curl. So this one does not count because it is a rookie card. But so far I mean, I feel like I haven't opened up blaster packs in a while. But we're doing pretty well on these.

[00:03:52]Which we have a Rams and a Giants rookie. So, there's Rams, there's another refractor, and then another Skataboo. Two Skataboos back-to-back.

[00:04:03]So, this Cameron Kinchens Kinchens is going to count onto the screen there.

[00:04:10]And we have a leather here. So, there's Riley Leonard. That one doesn't count, but there's Tavondre Sweat. So, this one's going to count on there. Which What have we already pulled two base leathers? Yeah. So, we've pulled two of the five base leathers that we need to hit out of 50 packs.

[00:04:27]Which we have a Trent Williams Pulsar.

[00:04:31]That one is also a rare one.

[00:04:34]So, yeah, we've hit a decent amount of rare ones, actually. I feel like it might be hard to get all of our base refractors. We shall see though.

[00:04:43]Okay, there's another Chiefs. It's going to be Pacheco. So, there's one of our base refractors.

[00:04:48]But, I always thought this would be fun to do to kind of break down all the odds.

[00:04:54]Here's a Shedeur Sanders Pulsar.

[00:04:57]These have been really, really good. You know, I I know all the cards I'm putting over here aren't the the good ones, but so far over here to the right, we've got a good stack of cards. Which I will have like all those nicer ones that you guys see, I will have them available on my website. Which here's a Titans rookie.

[00:05:15]Okay, that's going to be Khalil Mullings and Tyler Booker. I also I think they put the odds of what it is to pull just a base rookie card. I think it's like one in every three packs.

[00:05:27]So, that'd be interesting to keep track of as well. But, there's Kyle Pitts on the RayWave. So, the RayWave we should get more of those than the red, white, and blue leather and Pulsar.

[00:05:38]But, I mean, you guys will see on the screen where we're at so far.

[00:05:42]Let's see, we have a RayWave, and we're going to have a Pulsar to count. And then there's a Mecca Bukka.

[00:05:49]Okay. Now, this would be really interesting to do with Hobby. That would be like way too expensive, but that would definitely be a fun experiment.

[00:05:57]So, here's Giants Dexter Lawrence on the leather. Feel like we almost gotten all of our leathers. Yeah, I think that's the third one. So, all we need is two more. I feel like we actually will probably beat the odds. Here's a leather and it's not a rookie. So, there we go.

[00:06:12]I think we need one more leather and then we are at the odds for 50 packs, which I kind of like jumbled up all the packs here. So, you know, it's not going to be exactly, you know, like we might go through a run of packs without hitting a single, >> [music] >> um, you know, leather after that. But there's a red, white, and blue. Is that the first one?

[00:06:34]I think that might be the first one. I mean, you guys will see exactly what it is on the screen.

[00:06:39]But we're supposed to get five of those.

[00:06:42]Okay. And Giants.

[00:06:45]We've gotten a lot of Giants, but there's a another red, white, and blue.

[00:06:48]So, two red, white, and blues back-to-back. Now, I was, you know, when I was just scrolling and looking at the odds, I saw that the, uh, the patch cards, like the relics, those are like one in 200 something packs. So, they're actually very difficult to pull. When I did the, uh, the 200 box opening, we only pulled a few, which I was very, very surprised about. But it's always fun. Hey, there we go. So, there's Brian Robinson Jr.

[00:07:15]and Jackson Dart refractors. So, this one's going to count on the screen, but this one, which I've pulled a few Jackson Dart refractors. That's nice.

[00:07:24]It's definitely a little off-centered.

[00:07:26]But, you know, if these are still going for like 50 to $70, that's definitely a, uh, really nice hit.

[00:07:34]And I'm hoping we see at least another numbered card here. There's Jerry Jeudy.

[00:07:39]This one's going to count. And then we have a Tyreek Williams.

[00:07:42]So, I'm curious if we have gotten all the way to uh how many base refractors we're supposed to get.

[00:07:49]I feel like that one might be a little a little difficult. There's Troy Polamalu Polamalu, and then Alec Pierce. So, that I think is our fifth leather and our final leather that we are supposed to get.

[00:08:02]So, that's pretty nice.

[00:08:05]And then we've got Texans. There's Tank Dell. So, there's another regular refractor, and then Derrick Harmon.

[00:08:10]Which this was um it was like seven total blasters plus another blaster pack.

[00:08:18]So, um according to, you know, Topps and everything, we should get like two numbered cards, which we haven't hit a uh just a regular numbered card. We did hit a numbered auto. That is a retail exclusive one, which those are going to be a little bit easier to pull. So, I'm expecting to see about like two numbered cards out of here. So, there's A.J. Brown. So, we're over the amount of leathers that we're supposed to get. So, you can see how, you know, you can get better than what the odds state, and then you could get worse than what the odds state. You know, it really just depends on, you know, where you're, you know, picking out of the the packs on the conveyor belt. So, there's a Mecca Egbuka.

[00:09:00]And then there's a second Tank Dell. So, that's our Yeah, second Tank Dell refractor of the video.

[00:09:06]We have a Fortune 15. Now, if you look at the odds as well for inserts, I think you're supposed to get uh about one refractor of each insert and about uh 1 in 38 packs is what the odds say. But, of course, like I've been saying, you know, you just really don't know the exact odds that you're going to get. There's Mark Andrews. So, that's another refractor to count on the screen. Before we get into the rest of the video, I I to show you guys some of the cards I've gotten graded with PSA. A lot of these are PC and some I graded to make a profit. They look super nice in the slabs and if you want to protect and grade your cards just like this, I have a special discount code that will save you money. Just use code Wayne 25 at checkout and you'll get $25 off your first submission. I even put a link in the description that takes you exactly where you need to go to get started. So what are you waiting for? Get that first card graded and save some money while you're at it. Now enjoy the rest of the video. I'd say we're doing pretty well though.

[00:10:05]I've kind of lost track like in my head on some of these.

[00:10:08]There's Jordan Davis and we're going to have Shammar Turner. So Jordan Davis is definitely counting. I feel like we've definitely hit the uh the 12 regular base refractors.

[00:10:17]Not sure though.

[00:10:19]Okay, we've got Pulsar here.

[00:10:22]That is a rookie so not going to count.

[00:10:25]Now the rookie um refractors and stuff are definitely a lot harder to hit than [music] the base ones. So that's kind of why I wanted to, you know, just count the base ones. It's going to be easier to track and uh probably get more accurate.

[00:10:41]Which there we go. There's a rookie relic. We've got Mason Taylor. So that one it looks like it has like a streak down the middle. But this is like one in 200 packs. [music] Something like that.

[00:10:53]Now there there is uh two different rookie relics. So if you think about it, to hit a rookie relic it's going to be a about one and 100 packs if you uh you know, kind of combine the two odds of the two different relics that you can pull which I don't know why I put that over there.

[00:11:11]But I mean we're definitely over halfway through all the packs. We've got Brandin Cooks. So that's a another ray wave which the ray wave we're supposed to get 10 of. So it's almost equal to a regular refractor which I do like cuz those are some of the coolest cards that you can hit out of the blaster boxes. There's Bijan Robinson and then D. Hop, so I think that's our seventh leather.

[00:11:36]So, way over on the leathers.

[00:11:39]And we've got two regular fractors.

[00:11:42]There's Nate Wiggins and Deon Walker.

[00:11:44]So, the Nate Wiggins will count.

[00:11:47]And we've got, I mean, maybe like two blaster boxes worth of packs left. I'm surprised we haven't seen another numbered card.

[00:11:56]Okay, we have more Giants. There's Tyree Tracy, so that's another leather.

[00:12:00]So, the leathers are definitely taking the place of like our pulsars and stuff like that.

[00:12:07]So, we've got Bengals here. It's going to be Chase Brown on the ray wave, so we'll take that. We're supposed to see the ray waves more often than the other ones.

[00:12:17]Okay, here's red, white, and blue for the Colts.

[00:12:20]It is going to be Riley Leonard. So, that one doesn't count though cuz it is a rookie.

[00:12:26]But, I am curious like once I edit this to see where we're at on the numbers.

[00:12:32]Here's the Packers, MarShawn Lloyd.

[00:12:35]So, that one's going to count for the ray waves. We're getting all the ray waves at the end.

[00:12:40]So, we can't be too sure until we're, you know, finished opening up all the packs. There's Bobby Brown, so there's a pulsar. We definitely needed to see that. So, we're supposed to get five pulsars. So, like that shouldn't be like too hard out of here. Here's another ray wave.

[00:12:56]And it's another non-rookie.

[00:12:58]So, we're definitely up there with the ray waves. Probably hit the pack odds on that.

[00:13:03]And probably the refractors and we're over on the um the leathers.

[00:13:10]Okay, there's another pulsar. And there we go, Tom Brady Fortune 15.

[00:13:15]We'll definitely take that. And behind that, a Jackson Dart rookie, which this one is very well centered.

[00:13:20]So, we hit, I think, three Fortune 15 refractors. And then, I don't think we've hit a retro or a power players refractor. So you can see how it can vary, you know, between the packs that you open up. It's not going to be like exactly what the pack odds say, just because, you know, you're opening up a box from here, a box from there, stuff like that. So there's Breece Hall on the regular fracture that will count up on the screen. And we just have four packs left to go.

[00:13:48]I mean, if we don't see another numbered card, I would be very, very surprised.

[00:13:52]But I mean, like I've been saying, you know, it it really matters on what comes out of the packs. You can't just re- rely solely on the the pack odds.

[00:14:03]Okay, there's Mark Andrews on that one, which there we go. There's our first uh future stars refractor. So we hit one of those. We still haven't seen a retro though, which we could in the last two packs. We'll see.

[00:14:17]Okay.

[00:14:18]So there's Fortune 15. We have a red, white, and blue for the Bucks.

[00:14:22]Okay, there's Tyler Warren and Bucky Irving. This is the first time I've seen that. That's kind of a crazy error card.

[00:14:30]That is so weird. It's like they missed the like white ink or something. I don't know. That is That is really weird. But that That'll count on the board there. I have never seen that before. I'll probably definitely keep that uh card.

[00:14:46]And then the very last pack.

[00:14:49]Okay, I thought we had something here.

[00:14:52]We do have a Cole Kmet, and then there's power players Travis Kelce. All right.

[00:14:57]So, uh you guys will see the final numbers on the screen. Um I'm very surprised we didn't hit more numbered cards, but overall that was a really good opening. You guys will see exactly, you know, what we got versus uh you know, what we were supposed to get according to the pack odds. So let me know if you guys like these types of experiments, and if you want to see more stuff like this, but this is all the uh the base refractors, stuff like that that we were supposed to get from the odds. But again, go check out all the the nicer cards. I'll even have most of these refractors available on my website. There's a link in the description. Thanks for watching, and I'll see you in the next one.

[00:15:36]>> [music] [music]